Thursday, 17 August 2017

GBP/USD Remains under pressure

Last days the GBP/USD pair is bounded within tight range is currently is settled at 1.2876. The better than expected numbers on UK retail sales released this morning pushed the pair higher, but bulls couldn’t fight the psychological level at 1.2900. However the downward slope is still limited by the greenback’s weakness amid the political jitters in the United States. 
Technically speaking the pair remains under pressure. On the four-hour time frame the price developing below its bearish 20-day SMA. Stochastic has left its oversold area but yet is far below its mid-line and seems to be searching for clear direction. RSI is at around 36 and has lost directional strength. 
The short term outlook remains in favour of the bears with first target at 1.2840 and next at 1.2800. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.2895 and higher at 1.2930.

AUD/USD Moves higher due to better than expected AU jobs data

AUD/USD extends Wednesday's strong rally and today marked fresh high at 0.7962, as latest economic and political developments boosted the pair.
Greenback is suffering after the release of latest FOMC minutes and the political uncertainty in the USA. Of course Aussie benefited and today is fuelled by the better than expected Australian jobs data. The jobless rate in Australia slipped to 5.6% in July, a lower number  than before. The employment change also surpassed the market expectations – it has increased to 279K against the forecasts of 20K.
On the four-hour time frame the price is developing above its 20-day SMA, which has started to turn north. Stochastic is located within extreme overbought territories but has started to move downside. RSI is also around extreme values but last lost directional strength.
A clear break of 0.7967 61.8% (Fibonacci retracement of latest July to August pullback) will encourage the bulls to attack at psychological threshold at 0.8000. Immediate support is offered by the 23.6% of same Fibonacci retracement and the broken 20-day SMA at 0.7870

Wednesday, 16 August 2017

USD/JPY Close to the psychological threshold at 110.00

During the Asian session today the USD/JPY pair marked a weekly high at 110.95 but the situation changed after the FOMC minutes, which led to a broad-based US Dollar sell-off. The policymakers exposed their concerns about the inflation’s slowdown. So the next rate hike depends on the targeted 2%. On the other hand the greenback still suffers after Trump’s ridiculous racist incidents. Consequently above event supported the Japanese yen.
The four-hour time frame is showing that the price has crossed to below its 100-day SMA while the 20-day SMA is keeping its course to north. RSI and stochastic retreated from extreme overbought territories and currently both are showing strong momentum towards the downside, although yet are above the mid-lines.
Technically speaking the pair is poised to extend its decline, especially in case of breaking the psychological level at 100.00. In this scenario next support levels are seen at 109.55 and 108.75. 

Tuesday, 15 August 2017

Aussie extends weakness after RBA minutes and US upbeat data

Aussie continues to run on the downside and today dropper to four week  low, having marked daily low at 0.7805 with closure around 0.7820. 
The minutes of the latest RBA rate decision are hinting some disinflationary impact of the strong currency and are taking note of a potential economic slowdown in case the Australian Dollar extends the rally. 
However, the pair’s decline was much more supported by the US Dollar’s strength today due to the US upbeat retail sales report today. 
The four-hour time frame is showing that the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA pushed above it. RSI ans stochastic are displaying strong bearish momentum and are currently located within oversold territories. 
Strong support is seen at 0.7785 (July’s low) and in case of breaking it, bears might attempt next one at 0.7740. Looking to upside, first resistance is located at 0.7860 and second at the physiological level at 0.7900.

Gold on risk-on mode

The precious metal erased last week’s gains against the greenback losing 1% or more than $12 for the day. XAU/USD is currently trading around $1272.70, having marked daily low at $1267 (38.2% Fibonacci retarcement of latest $1251to $1292 upleg).
The US upbeat data today supported the greenback and the US Dollar Index is seen so higher, even reaching two weeks high at 94.01. So the safe heaven demand was set on risk-on mode. Technically speaking the four-hour time frame is showing bearish signs.
The price is moving well below its 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is diving a good support coinciding with the 61.8% of same Fibonacci retarcement at $1267. 
RSI and stochastic had retreated from the oversold areas but yet are far below their mid-lines. And this comes to tell that bears might enjoy their  time until breaking the Fibo 38.2% at $1276 that would bring back bulls in the game. 

Friday, 11 August 2017

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