Thursday, 31 August 2017

Nassim Taleb Quotes Part I

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Labanese-American scholar, essayist, statistician, former trader and risk analyst. He has been a practitioner of mathematical finance, s hedge fund manager and a derivatives. Taleb’s work is focused on problems of the probability, randomness and uncertainty. His most popolar is „The Black Swan”, which I strongly recommend you read. It as described in a review by The Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.
I'm a great fan and I'd like to share my favorite quotes with you:

“Things always become obvious after the fact” 

“The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.” 

“A Stoic is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into transformation, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.”

“When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.” 

“They will envy you for your success, your wealth, for your intelligence, for your looks, for your status - but rarely for your wisdom.” 

“People focus on role models; it is more effective to find antimodels - people you don't want to resemble when you grow up”

“The irony of the process of thought control: the more energy you put into trying to control your ideas and what you think about, the more your ideas end up controlling you.”

Wednesday, 30 August 2017

Forex trading psychology (III)

We keep going and we get to greed. That is the leading sense in trading, but not only. Even though you have read in advance that it is very important to follow the chosen strategy and close the deals when you get a signal or the price reaches the specified level, it's not that easy at all. By seeing the profit, besides the sense of satisfaction, you will feel another - called greed. Greed will try to keep you in position because you can win more. Of course, in most such cases, the price goes in the opposite direction, and the trader loses some or all of the profit gained so far.
The objective data on the stock exchange is only 10% and the other 90% is psychology. We can summarize that demo trading is very useful, but it should not be overwhelmed with it because it leads to false confidence in less experienced traders. Those who manage to control their emotions can be profitable.

„Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process.” – Benjamin Graham

Tuesday, 29 August 2017

Forex trading psychology (II)

All have demo accounts. Some traders test different strategies on them, others explore a particular broker, others learn to trade ... but in some cases instead of helping, the demo account damages. As already mentioned, it can give false assurance, so let's look at the main differences between demo and real account. They are essentially psychological, expressing the emotional states they cause.

First is the uncertainty. Going into a real account, you already have something to lose, that's why before each transaction you will be asked if the decision you have made is right. You will suddenly realize that you are afraid. You have experienced this feeling when trading a virtual account, but it is now much more pronounced. It is your fear that makes you feel insecure in yourself and miss the great opportunities the market has offered, and you have not taken advantage of them.

Fear will increase the losses. Let's say you've opened a deal and you're minus late at night just when you want to go to bed. Ask yourself: will you close the deal to minus or leave it as you sleep? In fact, will you be able to fall asleep until you know what's going on with your money? If at this point you were trading with virtual money, you would not care much. Still, you've already done that a lot of times on your demo account.

Monday, 28 August 2017

Forex trading psychology (I)

Many experienced traders share the view that trading on a demo account is useful only while exploring the functions of the platform you are using. In the virtual money market, the risk of real loss does not exist, which is why many beginners get too high confidence, as a result of which their first real money account is quickly melted.
By trading on a demo account, an inexperienced trader does not really think whether to buy or sell a volume of any tool, and when he loses, he just restarts his balance. With a good coincidence, recording several consecutive profitable deals, he feels ready to switch to a real account. At this point, the beginner has forgotten how many times his account has been restarted - it is only important for him that his ultimate balance is a big plus.

The above description is the way in which most traders go in their quest to succeed in the financial markets. But if this time can be circumvented?

Friday, 25 August 2017

The ActivTrades Virtual Private Server

My broker, ActivTrades, offers the excellent opportunity to trade on VPS (Virtual Private Server). This is a well-thought-out tool that will enhance your trading opportunities by providing isolated hosting environment, which is great for safety and performance purposes
The ActivTrades VPS is hosted in a secure, redundant data centre and optimised to maximise your trading potential and it is available for both Windows and Mac users. The service is on disposal of customers with real trading accounts and in order to activate your Forex VPS it is necessary to have at least €2,500 in your account.

Using this VPS has many useful advantages advantages, such as:

Ø  Your Expert Advisor  will keep working even if you power down your computer.
Ø  Individual Server - there are no other applications on the server and it is dedicated mainly to EAs.
Ø  Safe EA environment.
Ø  No power failures or resets.
Ø  There is a guaranteed 99.9999% uptime
Ø  “Never Reboot” and “Always Up To Date” security services.
Ø  10Gbps network connection speed.
Ø  Individual IP address is provided.
Ø  DDOS protection.

Tuesday, 22 August 2017

USD/JPY Higher ahead of Nikkei PMI

USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.57, up with 0.55% for the day, having posted daily high at 109.63 and low at 108.87, which was the session opening. The US macro data that was released today showed positive numbers and a small increase in the US Treasury yields was seen today along with the worldwide equities recovery. 
Next on the calendar of macro news are the speeches of the central bankers Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi and Japan’s preliminary Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for August. So definitely I expect an intersting development for the USD/JPY pair next days.
The four-hour time frame is showing upward momentum. The price crossed to above its bearish 20-day SMA, which is easing its downside slope. Meanwhile the pair remains below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, both trending downwards. Stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum nad has entered into extreme overbought territory. RSI is also aiming higher, but  is currently located around its mid-line. 
First support is seen at 108.87 (the daily low) and next at 108.55 (Friday’s low). Looking to the upside, good resistance is provided by the 100-day SMA at 110.00 and higher at 110.35.

AUD/USD No clear directional strength

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7907, down -0.38% for the day, having posted high at 0.7953 and daily low at 0.7898. 
However, the pair settled around 0.7940 during the European session before going down to above mentioned level as the US dollar became more attractive. This was largely weighed by the US positive data and the probability that Donald Trump could be re-assessing his tax reform plans.
On the other side, the Australia’s macro agenda has not much to offer this week, but iron ore and copper are keeping positive so this could support the Australian dollar.  
Technical readings on the four-hour time frame and not showing clear directional strength. The 20-day SMA moved few pips above the price, while the 100-day SMA is staying flat around 0.7915. Stochastic has sharply turned to south and is nearing extreme oversold territory. RSI is displaying neutral signs and has lost directional strength.
The short term outlook tend to be bearish without expectations below 0.7870, the current August low.

Monday, 21 August 2017

EUR/JPY Started the week with recovery, but remains capped by the 100-day and 200-day SMAs

During Friday’s session the EUR/JPY pair finally run out of the bearish sentiment which dominated from August 16th and marked high at 128.80. Today the pair is developing around this level but is going to close slightly lower with current market price 128.69. 
On the four-hour time frame the priced crossed to above its bearish 20-day SMA and meanwhile remains well below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Furthermore the last two ones are crossing each other at 129.65, which indicates limitation of the upward strength. Stochastic and RSI has recovered from the extreme oversold territories and both are displaying strong bullish momentum. 
Should the pair succeed to conquer Friday’s high at 128.80, further recovery is underway in the short term. 129.65 remains critical level and in case of breaking it, bulls would prevail longer in the play.  

EUR/USD Broke to above the descendant trend line

The EUR/USD pair moved higher today and marked a weekly high at 1.1827 backed up by the weak US dollar and the lack of important fundamental news. 
Technically speaking, bulls are going to dominate the game in the short term, as the price has crossed to above the descendant trend line from the 2017 high. The line is now around 1.1777 and was a good resistance level during the past few days, but has turned to support. Furthermore the pair conquered its 20-day and 100-day SMAs, as clearly seen on the four-hour time frame. 
Stochastic is located within its overbought area and is showing strong upward momentum. RSI at around 60, having lost directional strength. 
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1845 and in case of breaking it, next bulls’ target seems to be 1.1880.

Thursday, 17 August 2017

GBP/USD Remains under pressure

Last days the GBP/USD pair is bounded within tight range is currently is settled at 1.2876. The better than expected numbers on UK retail sales released this morning pushed the pair higher, but bulls couldn’t fight the psychological level at 1.2900. However the downward slope is still limited by the greenback’s weakness amid the political jitters in the United States. 
Technically speaking the pair remains under pressure. On the four-hour time frame the price developing below its bearish 20-day SMA. Stochastic has left its oversold area but yet is far below its mid-line and seems to be searching for clear direction. RSI is at around 36 and has lost directional strength. 
The short term outlook remains in favour of the bears with first target at 1.2840 and next at 1.2800. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.2895 and higher at 1.2930.

AUD/USD Moves higher due to better than expected AU jobs data

AUD/USD extends Wednesday's strong rally and today marked fresh high at 0.7962, as latest economic and political developments boosted the pair.
Greenback is suffering after the release of latest FOMC minutes and the political uncertainty in the USA. Of course Aussie benefited and today is fuelled by the better than expected Australian jobs data. The jobless rate in Australia slipped to 5.6% in July, a lower number  than before. The employment change also surpassed the market expectations – it has increased to 279K against the forecasts of 20K.
On the four-hour time frame the price is developing above its 20-day SMA, which has started to turn north. Stochastic is located within extreme overbought territories but has started to move downside. RSI is also around extreme values but last lost directional strength.
A clear break of 0.7967 61.8% (Fibonacci retracement of latest July to August pullback) will encourage the bulls to attack at psychological threshold at 0.8000. Immediate support is offered by the 23.6% of same Fibonacci retracement and the broken 20-day SMA at 0.7870

Wednesday, 16 August 2017

USD/JPY Close to the psychological threshold at 110.00

During the Asian session today the USD/JPY pair marked a weekly high at 110.95 but the situation changed after the FOMC minutes, which led to a broad-based US Dollar sell-off. The policymakers exposed their concerns about the inflation’s slowdown. So the next rate hike depends on the targeted 2%. On the other hand the greenback still suffers after Trump’s ridiculous racist incidents. Consequently above event supported the Japanese yen.
The four-hour time frame is showing that the price has crossed to below its 100-day SMA while the 20-day SMA is keeping its course to north. RSI and stochastic retreated from extreme overbought territories and currently both are showing strong momentum towards the downside, although yet are above the mid-lines.
Technically speaking the pair is poised to extend its decline, especially in case of breaking the psychological level at 100.00. In this scenario next support levels are seen at 109.55 and 108.75. 

Tuesday, 15 August 2017

Aussie extends weakness after RBA minutes and US upbeat data

Aussie continues to run on the downside and today dropper to four week  low, having marked daily low at 0.7805 with closure around 0.7820. 
The minutes of the latest RBA rate decision are hinting some disinflationary impact of the strong currency and are taking note of a potential economic slowdown in case the Australian Dollar extends the rally. 
However, the pair’s decline was much more supported by the US Dollar’s strength today due to the US upbeat retail sales report today. 
The four-hour time frame is showing that the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA pushed above it. RSI ans stochastic are displaying strong bearish momentum and are currently located within oversold territories. 
Strong support is seen at 0.7785 (July’s low) and in case of breaking it, bears might attempt next one at 0.7740. Looking to upside, first resistance is located at 0.7860 and second at the physiological level at 0.7900.

Gold on risk-on mode

The precious metal erased last week’s gains against the greenback losing 1% or more than $12 for the day. XAU/USD is currently trading around $1272.70, having marked daily low at $1267 (38.2% Fibonacci retarcement of latest $1251to $1292 upleg).
The US upbeat data today supported the greenback and the US Dollar Index is seen so higher, even reaching two weeks high at 94.01. So the safe heaven demand was set on risk-on mode. Technically speaking the four-hour time frame is showing bearish signs.
The price is moving well below its 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is diving a good support coinciding with the 61.8% of same Fibonacci retarcement at $1267. 
RSI and stochastic had retreated from the oversold areas but yet are far below their mid-lines. And this comes to tell that bears might enjoy their  time until breaking the Fibo 38.2% at $1276 that would bring back bulls in the game. 

Friday, 11 August 2017

An ActivTrader Platform by ActivTrades

The trading platform is a software through which traders can open, close and manage their market positions.In one word – it vital. It is absolutely necessary and  important because through the trading platform you carry into effect your trading decisions.
My broker, ActivTrades, offers an amazing ActivTrader platform with many advantages and the following main features:
·         ActivTrader has an intuitive interface but it provides all functionalities required even by  sophisticated traders, making it suitable for everyone and that’s why it’s easy to use.
·         You can use ActivTrader both on all iOS devices, as well as on one’s browser and meanwhile you will always have access to your trading platform in order not to miss a trading opportunity.
·         The ActivTrader platform offers access to a wide range of instruments needed to trade  Forex, Metals, Indices, Gold and Silver.
·         The advanced charting allow you to add multiple charts and use special technical analysis tools. Also you have access to over 90 different indicators to strengthen your trading strategy.
·         By the one-click trading functionality you can trade instantly on the fast-paced market.
·         And last but not less important, ActivTrader platform helps you to manage your risk and exposure through stop loss and take profit orders. ActivTrader platform has all the features needed for an effective trading strategy.

If you are poised to trade fast and simple, I highly recommend you the ActiveTrader platform.