Friday, 31 March 2017

Under pressure

With the beginning of the week the EUR/USD pair marked a fresh 4 month high, but meanwhile since then we witnessed huge plummeting and the current market price is 1.0680. The elevated mood on Monday was supported by the speculation that the ECB was considering tapering its stimulus program along with the largely weakened greenback. Today the pair printed 2 week low at 1.0668 which is clearly explained by the mild local preliminary inflation data for March that frames the ECB's picture that the latest advance was temporal. 
Technically speaking, the pair is set in short term bearish mode, given that on the 4 hour chart the 20-day SMA has sharply turned to downside and is about to cross with the 100-day SMA. A recovery above the both SMAs seems to be very hard at this very moment.
Technical indicators are showing extreme overbought conditions and are displaying lack of momentum. RSI has slightly retreated to 30 level, while stochastic is staying flat below 10 region.
In line with the short term bearish outlook is standing the key support at 1.0660 and in case of breaking it, further weakness is seen at 1.0620.
As Freddie sings „These are the days – it never rains but it pours”. 

Tuesday, 28 March 2017

Trumpalyize this

The very first excecutive order of the President Donald Trump hit like a wrecking ball the healthcare walls of stability and galvanized the public disapproval. Inadequate, reckless or just to confirm that this man is redefining weird on an hourly basis.

With no Republican replacement for the Affordable Care Act seen ahead, every step taken to destabilise the individual insurance market and Medicaid risks weakening of the health-care system in need of reinforcement.

People are discouraged of buying insurance, particularly healthy people who need to balance the risk bets and to keep their premiums reasonable.

Next to creep with troubles is The Justice Department by cutting the government’s defence against a congressional lawsuit that intends to stop some $7 bln in federal “cost-sharing” payments to insurers.

The president’s doings are going to flay his voters alive and he is not taking into consideration that needs healthy people to feed his flame. 

If the responsibility to strengthen the system has not been approached with the fundamental significance, then a prescription for self heath care is absolutely obligatory. Trumpalize this with your psychotherapist.

USD/JPY tilted to downwards

The short-term outlook for USD/JPY has turned to downside as since the beginning of March the pair marks lower highs. Mostly this bearish march is backed by the US Treasury yields weakness and the recent strength in the Japanese Yen that largely goes with the decline in risk sentiment.The four hour chart is showing that currently the pair is sitting at a well defined support channel. The prices continues to stay below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI has retreated slightly from oversold area, while stochastic maintains bullish slope. Meanwhile the daily chart is indicating exhaustion of both indicators but yet displaying extreme oversold conditions. 
109.90 is a critical level and a possible break to downwards will open doors for testing 108.30–108.40 region. Yet the risk remains towards the downside. 

Monday, 27 March 2017

Careless Sterling

This week is not offering much from a macroeconomic viewpoint and the triggering of Article 50 is going to be the main market driver. It will be curious to observe the Cable, considering the current weakness of the US dollar after the failure of Trumpcare. 
During the past weeks the Brexit saga headlined the development of the Sterling, which was trading elevated and even had marked 8-week high against the greenback.The formal negotiations for triggering Article 50 are starting on Wednesday and generally it is supposed to fuel UK bulls. Meanwhile the news is beforehand exhausted, so we may not expect any significant changes for the day.
Technical readings on the daily chart are showing bullish indicators and the 20-day SMA has started to turn north. RSI is at around 62 level, marking higher highs and lower lows. Stochastic is placed within extreme overbought territory but is displaying lack of momentum. The increased buying interest might boost the pair towards the resistance area around 1.2650 – 1.2700 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of post Brexit down leg). Looking to downside potential drop might be seen at 1.2400 level, where the 100-day SMA is acting as a dynamic support. 

Sunday, 26 March 2017

It's all about Trumpcare

The EUR/USD pair closed higher for a fourth consecutive week, slightly lower but very close to the yearly high of 1.0828 marked in February. 
Looking ahead we may assure that generally the US Dollar is going to be weak. The political issues in USA define major stuck in range. Trumpcare and the administration services provided by the random elect support a lot the instability of the currency.
Technically the pair moved up and met a major resistance area, posting 1.0824 before retreating modestly. The February monthly high is located at  1.0828, but at 1.0820, the pair has met the 50% retracement of the post-US election slump. The pullback from the this high has been a little bit shallow, because the price is staying above 1.0760, which is to say that the buying interest is confined. On the daily chart RSI and stochastic are printing higher highs and lower lows and both indicators are located withing the overbought region, but still keep heading north. The 20-day and 100-day SMA has crossed to above and currently are showing bullish slope. Strong support is seen at 1.0700 and until holding above it, the game will be played by bulls’ team.

Friday, 24 March 2017

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Wednesday, 22 March 2017

USD/JPY The Bears Yell

USD/JPY pair has drowned into the deep waters today and marked a fresh yearly low at 110.72. Risk aversion and the falling bond yields are setting the Japanese yen at best performer role among the currency players.  
Currently the price is slightly recovering to trade now at 110.98, which can not be considered seriously as the price is almost around two hundred pips below the level it had at the beginning of the week.
Technically speaking on the H1 chart RSI is consolidating around 30 level and stochastic is heading  lower, which is to indicate down slide risk. The four-hour time frame is showing bearish 20-day and 50-day SMAs, that had crossed to below. Indicators are well placed within oversold area and had lost directional strength.
Risk to towards the downside remains actual as long as the pair remains below 111.60 (key support has turned now to resistance).

Tuesday, 21 March 2017

USD/CAD Exposed to show shift in momentum

USD/CAD declined this afternoon and had marked a fresh weekly low at 1.3261. The daily key market mover for the pair was the optimistic numbers delivered by the latest Canada's Retail Sales for January and well supported by the suffering greenback. 
After the initial drop the pair retreated and the current market price is 1.3337. As seen on the four-hour time frame the 20-day and 100-day SMAs has been crossed to below and are providing good resistances levels. Meanwhile RSI and stochastic are slightly below their mid-lines, but both indicating upward momentum.
The bounce today should be treated significantly only in the short-term since USD/CAD is facing strong resistance at 1.3380 area and while staying below this point, the momentum may continue to be interpreted as bearish.   

Monday, 20 March 2017

Masquerade of transatlantic relationship or what the nothingness of a gesture means

The syndrome of the random elect, well dressed in awkwardness dispersed confusion on the first face-to-face transatlantic meeting.
The U.S. President Donald Trump and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel met last Friday and this happening left sure pack of diversification on the international etiquette and the interpretation of the transatlantic relationship.
This meeting was supposed to shape and determine the future of the alliance, but in fact it was hardly to mask the differences on major geopolitical issues like views on Russia’s significance, immigration and trade.  
The uncomfortable moments were not few, given the fact that Mr Trump  didn’t outline strong and significant measures on the macroeconomic scene as the propaganda spoke much more over the inside structural effects. And this is partly explaining the strange behaviour. Probably he is not ready, probably he is not supposed to be ready. And moreover he is not likely to buy Merkel’s love.
It’s a hard job to put yourself into the tough game and master the role of domination when you have no clear definition what the game is about.  
But let’s have a look at the situation from the viewpoint of the body language. Though Merkel seemed to be relaxed and comfortable, the body language between them was not quite warm.
Trump and Merkel shook hands when she arrived at the White House, but it was not doubled in the Oval Office, where she very often leaned towards him while he was looking straight ahead and sitting with his legs apart and hands together. The expectations were not justified and the situation screamed out with the lack of due protocol.
Aside from business and foreign policy goals, relationship construction is an important if less overt agenda item.
Merkel, hold on tight and consider the distance of your hands as another message, although it is not yet formulated.

Friday, 17 March 2017

USD/CHF at monthly low

The week of central bankers set the USD/CHF pair in strong bearishness. Latest FOMC rate decision brought sharp move to downwards and yesterday’s SNB elect to keep rates unchanged pushed the pair even lower. USD/CHF marked a fresh monthly low at 0.9940 and today is slightly up to currently trade at 0.9970.
Technically speaking the four hour chart is showing bearish signs. The price is developing around the lower Bollinger band and had closed several times beyond it. Both indicators are located within extreme oversold territory, but momentum has lost strength. 0.9950 is giving good support now, but given the fact that the technical readings are pointing lower, the pair is poised to extend the down slide and next bears' target is seen at 0.9910.  

Gold is getting more loved

Gold is shining again and is getting more attractive after the last Federal Reserve's rate hike. Currently the price is gravitating around $1228, but to become more loved needs to overcome the key resistance level at $1230 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest December to February up move).
The four-hour time frame is showing bullish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA has turned from resistance to currently act as dynamic support. 
Both RSI and stochastic are displaying extreme overbought conditions and are keeping flat high above their mid-lines. It seems that had lost momentum and directional strength. 
Weakness might be encountered only around the major support at $1210 (38.2% of same Fibonacci retracement). Overall the short term sentiment remains bullish.

Thursday, 16 March 2017

Fanfares for no surprise

"The simple message is the economy is doing well". And the widely expected rate hike is now fact along with raised Fed’s target for short-term interest rates to a range of 0.75% and 1.00%.
After the event the US Dollar plummeted due to the aggressive profit - taking and then followed elevation in the other major currencies. AUD/USD is up with 1.98%, EUR/USD added 1.23% and GBP/USD moved higher with 1.14%.  
Gold was also positively affected and was trading elevated. The precious metal surged above the significant support level at $1200 and marked a 1-and-a-half week high at $1228.76.
I do not trade news, but it was quite interesting to be only observer in a situation alarming for attention.

Tuesday, 14 March 2017

The uncomfortable Tuesday

The House of Commons gave green light to the UK Prime Minister Theresa May, neglecting the amendments passed by the House of Lords and officially the divorce with the EU got started. 
Yesterday the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced that next week will apply for permission for conducting second independence referendum.
During Monday’s session the GBP/USD was trading uplifted and marked daily high at 1.2250 after had formed triple bottom. This level is of major importance as represents 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest February down slide and is acting as a resistance. Following the Brexit development today the pair couldn’t hold the line and dropped sharply towards 1.2105 area.
Technical readings on the four-hour time frame are showing bearish signs. The 20-day SMA is staying flat, while RSI and stochastic had turned to oversold area and are indicating very strong downward momentum. A recovery might only be seen only in case the pair fight the intermediate resistance located at 1.2150. Anyway currently GBP/USD is quite vulnerable and the key driver for the future months will be the Brexit development. 

Monday, 13 March 2017

EUR/USD In partly cloudy mood

The EUR/USD pair started the new week enthusiastically and hit a monthly high at 1.0713, but now it seems that bulls’ power is fading away as the current market price is 1.0657. On the macro scene ECB’s Friday release fuelled the single currency’s strength while the US dollar is seen rather weaker. 
Technically speaking, on the four-hour time frame are showing mixed signs. The 20-day moving average has turned sharply to north and crossed the 100-day SMA to above. RSI and stochastic have retreated from overbought territory, but yet are placed above their mid-lines. The pair was flirting for shortly today with the 1.0705 level, which importance came from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to January downwards slope and is acting as a resistance. Currently  EUR/USD is bearish corrective mood, but breaking the support at 1.0635 will drag the pair lower. 
The upcoming week is serving abounding set of macro data within the geomagnetic field of importance. During the week of the Central Banker we will also witness Germany’s inflation numbers and March ZEW survey , Industrial Production for January within the EU and February’s PPI figures in the US. It seems to be quite an interesting and volatile week and given the fundamental and technical readings, the prognosis for the EUR/USD is going to be partly cloudy.

Friday, 10 March 2017

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Thursday, 9 March 2017

XAG/USD Confluence of July's trend line and June's support

Since the beginning of February Silver prices are sharply sloping to downwards. Today the price surpassed the important support level at $17.00 and currently is trading at $16.95.
On the daily chart is clearly seen the confluence of the downward trend staring from July 2016 and the support line at June’s 2016 lows. Could this be read as a turning point or a minor stop before continuation of the short term trend?
The same chart is also showing very bearish readings. Both RSI and stochastic are placed well below their mid-lines and are displaying strong bearish momentum.
Given the fact that the US Dollar is relatively strong now, there is reasonable opportunity Silver to continue losses even below December’s 2016 trend line. 

Wednesday, 8 March 2017

USD/JPY Higher

Yesterday USD/JPY was seen at neutral stance and was stuck within tight range. But today better than expected number in the US ADP awakened the bulls. The pair broke the recent range and conquered the key resistance at 114.00. The current market price is 114.60 and is slightly above major handle 114.50 – the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to December up move.
On the four-hour time frame is seen that the pair has advanced above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, while the 20-day SMA is turning to north. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought region and are displaying strong bullish momentum.
Nevertheless the bullish trend in the medium term might be confirmed only if USD/JPY advance beyond 114.95 – 115.30 area (late January’s and February’s highs). 

Tuesday, 7 March 2017

Gold finds support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

The US dollar is seen generally stronger amid the rising expectations for the upcoming rates hike and the bulls are retreating from the buck-denominated precious metals. Today Gold prices marked a fresh new low at $1215 and bullishness is fading away in the short term.
Currently Gold is finding support at $1214 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to February up leg). The four-hour time frame is showing bearish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA has lost direction and is acting as a resistance at $1238. RSI and stochastic are heading south and are displaying extreme oversold conditions. Thus situated according to the technical readings, it appears likely that the precious metal is poised to extend the downward slope towards $1210 level and even may drop to test the key support at $1200. 

Monday, 6 March 2017

EUR/JPY Undecided

EUR/JPY is about to end the trading day near the Friday’s closure point at 120.50. Though the pair was seen slightly elevated and marked daily high at 121.15, which is a 2-week high, was unable to hold above the bullish 100-day SMA on the daily chart. Meanwhile the 4 hour time frame is showing that price is now caught in range between the 20-day and 100-day SMA. RSI is slightly above the mid-lines and is loosing directional strength. Immediate support is located at 120.15 and in case of closing below it, the pair will be poised to extend the downside towards February’s lows around 119.40 - 119.70. Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 120.75 (200-day SMA) and higher at 120.40 (February’s high).   

Thursday, 2 March 2017

USD/JPY at 2-week high

During the last three sessions the USD/JPY pair is moving steadily upwards and today marked a fresh two-weeks high at 114.58. The renewed expectations for rates hike and the rising US bond yields fuelled the greenback’s strength. 
Technical reading on the four-hour time frame are showing bullish signals. The 20-day SMA is crossing to above the 100-day SMA, which is starting to turn south. RSI and stochastic are displaying extreme overbought conditions and had marked higher highs.
Strong resistance is seen at 114.95 – 115.00 area and in case US bulls find enough power to conquer it, the rally might be extended towards 115.30 – 115.65. Short-term support is now located at 114.00 and lower at 113.65.

Wednesday, 1 March 2017

AUD/NZD at resistance

Australia’s Q4 data release surprised with better than expected numbers and set the Aussie in elevated mood. Of course this is not relevant against the US dollar, as latest Trump performance pushed the greenback and stocks higher. But meanwhile the AUD/NZD rallied today and succeeded to escape from the recent range. Fundamentally speaking, NZD is influenced now by the RBNZ decision to keep OCR unchanged until September, which reflected on pair’s move up. 
Today the pair sharply rallied and reached 1.0770 – a key resistance level. On the daily chart is the 50-day SMA is crossing to above the 200-day SMA and is giving bullish sentiment. RSI is slightly above the mid-lines and is showing bullish momentum, while stochastic is still placed below its mid-lines, but has turned to north. Closing above 1.0745 will tempt bulls to re-test the key resistance at 1.0770 and will open doors for further gains.