Thursday, 29 September 2016

AUD/USD close to 3-week high

The Australian dollar is trading elevated today, boosted by OPEC’s deal to cut output. This remarkable event pushed higher the commodity currencies and thrilled the risk appetite. 
Aussie hit an intraday high at 0.7709 but shortly afterwards fell down. RSI shows close to overbought market, which confirms the profit-taking actions by market players. 
As seen on the four hour chart, the 50-day moving average is crossing the 200-day moving average and currently is staying above, which is to indicate the bullish trend. Support is located around 0.7620, where currently is located the 50-day MA. The short-term outlook remains bullish, but bulls should conquer the 8th September high at 0.7731 and 9th August high at 0.7833 for confirmation of the long-term trend.

GBP/USD lower today

GBP/USD was quite indecisive during yesterday’s session, but succeeded to keep the bullish intraday signals and hit 1.3057 earlier this morning. Having in mind that the Cable experienced huge downward pressure recently, this performance surprised the market participants. The marco agenda for today suggests the Mortgage Approvals and Net Consumer Credit reports for August in UK, which are of medium importance, but yet the pair is sensitive enough and another leg down is very possible.
Immediate support is seen at 1.3000, and pushing below it could lead price to neutral trading zone for testing 1.2950/00, but yet the key support remains at 1.2790. Looking to the upside, resistance is located at 1.3050, 1.3500 and 1.500.

Tuesday, 27 September 2016

USD/JPY formed double bottom

USD/JPY was sloping downwards yesterday, marked an intraday low at 100.24 and earlier this morning hit 100.07. It seems that the Japanese yen is consolidating in a tight range as looking in a short term perspective there no significant domestic macro data to support the currency. 
USD/JPY pair has formed a double bottom on 100.07, as it is clearly seen on the the hourly chart. The short-term perspective is bearish. Momentum shows bearish signs as well and ADX also gives confirmation.The double bottom line at 100.07 should be pierced downwards for continuation on the bearish scenario. Next bears target is seen at 99.50. 
Immediate resistance is seen at 101.15. A clear break above this level may lead to further downward pressure for testing 100.00 - 99.50. Next resistance levels are located at 101.15 and 101.65. 

EUR/USD retreats after US Presidential debate

The US dollar was seen slightly elevated this morning, following the US Presidential debate last night. But the EUR/USD pair is still under pressure as almost lost all gained during the previous session. As clearly seen on the 4-hour chart, the pair is staying above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages and cannot find enough strength to set direction. 
First support is located at 1.1200 and if the drop extends to eventual daily close below, this could trigger further bearish pressure for testing next support at 1.1125. Looking upwards, the EUR/USD pair will definitely need to strengthen in order to overcome the resistance located at 1.1275. Only bulls will be able to bring back their power and set next target to the 1.1350.

Friday, 23 September 2016

Live Trading Analysis - FX, Commodities & Indices

Yet another extremely helpful webinar was held yesterday by my online broker ActivTrades and led by the professional trader Malte Kaub - Managing Director at the Traders' Leadership Council in London. This time the topic was Live Trading Analysis - FX, Commodities & Indices. It was an amazing opportunity and I learned how to read the charts in better way and got practical insight into the application of proven technical analysis strategies for Forex, commodities and indices. 

You you have missed it, worry don’t, all is stored at webinar’s archive section.

Wednesday, 21 September 2016

USD/JPY retreated back to 102 handle on BoJ's statement

Earlier this morning BoJ presented the new policy framework and announced that will keep the main interest rate unchanged as well as the ETF purchases amount and the bond-buying program. New measures will be implement to control the yield curve together with QE and reaching the target of 0% in 10 yr bond yield.
Ahead of BoJ’s Kuroda speech USD/JPY slipped below the bullish channel, but after digesting the comment the pair pushed higher again. Looking to the downside, a clear break and daily close below 101.15 could lead the bears to 100.00 - 99.50 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 103.36 and if closing above 103.00 bulls may try to test it. Anyway key resistance level remains near 104.00. Currently the bearish scenario is preferable, but nothing is sure as higher volatility is expected to spur the markets this evening with Fed’s statement. 

GBP/USD slumped to mid point of 1.29 mark

During yesterday’s session GBP/USD pair was quite hesitant but overall still manages to retain the bearish bias. Following the BoJ’s statement this morning the pair slumped to 1.2945, but shortly afterwards retreated to 1.2967. The policy framework presented today by BoJ to keep rates unchanged fueled the US dollar’s strength and pushed the USD index 0.25% higher.
Fist resistance that should be considered is located at 1.3050, above which 1.3100 would be tested. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.2900 might bring the price down to test 1.2790. As long as the pair stays below 1.3500, the bearish scenario is still is pace.

Tuesday, 20 September 2016

USD/CHF stuck around 0.98 handle

USD/CHF couldn’t post any significant movement yesterday. The pair manages to stay around 0.98 mark, after the bulls trying to conquer 0.9820 last Friday. Currently the bias remains bullish with next target 0.9850 - 0.9900 area. The intraday support is seen at 0.9745, where the 100-day and 50-day moving averages are crossing. A clear break below that area could lead the pair to neutral zone for testing 0.9750 - 0.9700 area. Further downside next support is located at 0.9690. Looking to the upside, resistance is seen at 0.9850. Major macro data that could stir the markets is due today by the SECO (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs) and tomorrow all eyes will be on Fed’s meeting.

EUR/USD is treading water ahead of Fed’s meeting

EUR/USD performed quite hesitantly yesterday. The pair tried to push higher, but fails to break through 1.1200 for now. Seems that bears are likely to test 1.1125. Immediate resistance remains around 1.1200 and if the pair succeed to conquer it, this could lead to further bullish pressure for testing 1.1250 / 75. Buy key resistance remains 1.1350. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.1125 will raise any bearish pressure for testing 1.1050. The main technical outlook still remains neutral. Anyway macro agenda for the week offers plenteous news that might set more clear direction for EUR/USD pair.

Saturday, 17 September 2016

US inflation showed better than expected numbers

Consumer prices in the US showed better that expected numbers in August, which is to indicate that inflation is getting closer to Federal Reserve’s target.
The consumer price index CPI in the country rose in August by 0.2% on a monthly basis with expectations for an increase of 0.1%, having in mind that in July remained at the level of the previous month, or 0.0%.
Major influence over the stronger than forecast increase in inflation appears to be the sharp increase of 0.9% in prices for medical services.
In August the US inflation accelerated on annual basis in August to 1.1 percent from 0.8 percent in July amid the expectations for an increase of 1%.
At the same time the main CPI index excluding the food and energy prices marked an increase of 0.3% , as on an annual basis rose by 2.3% amid the expectations of keeping the pace of growth from July with 2.2 %.

Friday, 16 September 2016


USD/JPY attempted to push higher during yesterday’s session, reached an intraday high at 102.75 but closed lower at 102.07. In the early trading hours today the pair visited the lower level and hit 101.70. The short-terms expectations remain to downwards for testing the support located at 101.50 - 101.15. Immediate resistance is seen at 102.50. A clear break above that area could lead the pair to neutral trading zone but still the bearish scenario is more preferable. On the downside, a clear break  and daily closing below 101.15 will target the 100.00 - 99.50 area next week.


EUR/USD did post any significant movement yesterday, even though we witnessed quite  dynamic session. The price slipped above 1.1275 but closed lower at 1.1242. The closing price was considerably near the opening price, respectively 1.1243 and 1.1248.
The outlook remains neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance remains around 1.1275 and in case of possible breakthrough it, this could trigger further bullish pressure for testing 1.1350. Support is located at 1.1200. A clear break and potential daily/weekly close below it, could lead bears towards 1.1125 or lower next week. The main technical outlook remains neutral.

Wednesday, 14 September 2016

AUD/USD in consolidation around 0.7500

During today’s afternoon trading hours we witnessed slight weakness in the US dollar. AUD/USD pair slowly moved upwards and reached the intraday high at 0.7486, but couldn’t cross over the 0.7500 mark. The pair is currently seen in consolidation, still staying aside of the weekly low, having in mind that yesterday dropped with around 100 pips.
From the time of late trading hours the AUD/USD is hovering within a tight range. The pair is stuck between support, located at 0.74416 and the resistance, located at 0.7500. Consolidation is still in pace, close to the 20-day moving average.

Tuesday, 13 September 2016

EUR/USD is walking downwards

During today’s trading the EUR/USD pair marked intraday high at 1.1261, but later in the day moved below the 20-day moving average and pinned the daily low at 1.1205. Anyway the pair is still staying above 1.1200 level and is currently trading at 1.12116, which is slightly below previous session closure. The sentiment remains bearish and if breaking 1.1210 on downwards, the pair might visit 1.1200 mark. Currently resistance is located at 1.1260, 1.1285 and at the psychological mark 1.3000. On the downside support is seen at 1.1195, 1.1180 and 1.1140.

Sunday, 11 September 2016

Oil production in OPEC dropped to 3-month low in August

Oil production in the OPEC dropped to 3-month low in August, according to the preliminary data. The production in the cartel has decreased by 200 thousand barrels a day to 33 million barrels a day in August, which is the lowest level since May. The OPEC data will be officially presented on Monday, but before the official publication some corrections might be expected.

The decline in production is due to decreases in the production of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. Some representatives of the organization state that the countries lower the record-high yields and are ready to cooperate for the sake of possibly freezing yields. Later this month this will be discussed at a meeting in Algeria.
The yield in Iran remains at 3.6 million barrels per day in August - as in May. The Islamic Republic said it wants to increase production to over 4 million barrels per day. Some OPEC officials claim that Tehran has already reached that level.
The output in Venezuela has decreased by 200 thousand barrels per day this year and the last two months has stabilized to 2.1 million barrels per day. Production in Algeria and Libya in August decreased respectively by 9000 barrels per day and 28 thousand barrels per day.
Only Iraq and Nigeria have significant increases. Authorities in Baghdad have reported OPEC that the yield increased by 32 thousand barrels per day to 4.64 million barrels a day in August. In Nigeria the production increased by 186 thousand barrels per day to 1.46 million barrels per day.

Markets in Europe and the US are still under pressure because of the ECB's decision

European Stoxx Europe 600 index declined by 0.69 percent to 346.90 points against the background of ECB's decision to keep the key interest rates and the quantitative easing programme unchanged.
The German stock index DAX decreased by about 0.8 percent for a second consecutive session , the French CAC40 fell by 0.89 percent, the Italian MIB fell by 0.7%, while the Spanish Ibex-35 - with 0.54% .
US indices also suffered - the blue chip index Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 400 points, as Boeing contributed the most to the decline. S & P 500 recorded a decline of 2.45%, as the telecommunications and utilities fell by more than 3 percent. The technological benchmakr Nasdaq posted decrease of 2.54% percent and Apple shares fell 2.2 percent.

Saturday, 10 September 2016

The rules

Warren Buffett, George Soros, Jesse Livermore, Edwin Lefevre, John J. Murphy, Lewis Allen, Peter Lynch, Adam Smith. There men have only one thing in common – they are the greatest market players.

If you want to be like them, you must keep in mind the following rules:
1. Education, training, education.
2. Think about yourself.
3. Adaptation or failure.
4. The lack of a plan is a prior condition for failure. 
5. "Be like a machine".
6. Know your tools better.
7. Know yourself.
8. Profit & Loss.

These men had worked very hard to achieve their targets and be what they are known to be. So you have to work very hard in order to move forward. The experience, training and the constant adaptation to the market movements are sure conditions for success. Patience, persistence and willpower are the key factors.

The importance of trading discipline

As elsewhere, discipline plays an important role in forex trading. Successful forex traders have strong discipline. They plan each deal and then simply trade their plans. If you do not develop a clear plan for trade and follow it consistently, you will find difficulty in continuing earning money as a trader.

Doing random profitable deal, even throw away any plan you made, this may only give you some pleasure for short time, but in general making occasional deals may adversely affect the ability to maintain discipline in the long run. When you stop following your plan and be rewarded for lack of discipline, you may then believe that following the plan is not such a big deal. Unwarranted profits increased the tendency to follow any plan in the future. Positive results from this are for short and the lack of discipline always ends with a loss. 

So be disciplined, because the discipline is the key for successful trading!

Friday, 9 September 2016

Trading US Indices - An ActivTrades Webinar

The indices are considered to be a key indicator of the market in each country. They are often discussed in the media and this allows traders and investors to know more about them . Most major indices are based on baskets of securities of leading companies and therefore are considered good indicators of current market mood. A large part of traders who prefer to invest short-term, are focused on the major stock indices like NASDAQ, Dow Jones and S & P and the reason is that they allow  better technical analysis and react more favorably to price changes. 

Speaking about US indices, yesterday was held quite interesting and educative webinar, led by the professional trader Paul Wallace and organized by the competitive online broker ActivTrades. 

Some tips share by Paul Wallace about trading indices are:
- Be aware of upcoming news items;
- If there is a change in one index, follow that for the session;
- Follow any particular static or dynamic levels of support;
- Look at using correlations to your advantage!

Sunday, 4 September 2016

International US trade deficit shrank by nearly 12%

The international US trade deficit shrank by nearly 12 % in July thanks to rising exports. This is a signal of strengthening global demand for goods and services.
The trade deficit of the world's leading economy fell in July by 11.6% to 39.47 billion dollars from a deficit of 44.66 bln dollars in June, reflecting the large increases in exports and the decrease in imports. The average forecast of the financial markets were for a larger deficit amounting to about 41.1 bln dollars.
Imports fell 0.8% to 225.81 bln dollars, but at the same time, exports rose 1.9% to 186.33 bln dollars. This represents the largest increase in US exports for two and a half years and it is a fact despite the sharp appreciation of the dollar at the end of June and most of July in reaction to the surprising Brexit vote.

Friday, 2 September 2016

GBP/USD is pushing higher

GBP/USD  continued its bullish momentum yesterday and reached an intraday high at 1.3317. As it is seen on the hourly chart, the pair formed triple bottom, which confirmed the trend reversal. During today’s  session the pair is pushing higher and bulls might conquer 1.3400 level, as US dollar is pressured by the weak NFP data, that was released today in the afternoon. Strong resistance is located at 1.3370 and if breaking above, next bulls target seems to be 1.3423. Support is seen at 1.3235 and a break below this level would drag the pair lower to 1.3224.

EUR/USD testing the 200-day EMA

EUR/USD had a slight downward movement yesterday and marked intrday low at 1.1127. But later on the single currency pushed higher to closing price of 1.1195 after the release of the ISM manufacturing data, that showed unsatisfactory results. As it is seen on the hourly chart, the price is now testing the 200-day exponential moving average located around 1.1205. Currently the bias is bullish for testing 1.1250. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure for testing 1.1350. First support is located at 1.1165 and a possible break could lead the price to neutral zone but should keep the bearish signals strong for testing 1.1100 before targeting the 1.1000 area. Still the main technical outlook remains neutral.