Friday, 28 July 2017

An Economic Calendar by ActivTrades


Knowing the economic events with high impact on market is of great importance because this may ease your trading. Once you may avoid and next time to boost your results. 
So checking regularly the economic calendar is quite essential.
My broker, ActivTrades, offers all traders this valuable resource and it’s very practical and easy for use. You may track on the ActivTrades economic calendar based on all sorts of criteria - the dates you are interested in, the events type, news by countries and the impact on markets (high, medium or low).

To be informed about the fundamental news that are influencing the market every single day, I suggest you to take advantage of this vital trading resource!

Thursday, 27 July 2017

USD/JPY Found resistance at 50% Fibo

Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged is fading away from markets and we witnessed recovery in US treasury yields and Wall street is indicating elevated mood. Following this and the mixed US data, the USD/JPY pair is pushing higher today. The pair was flirting with the 50% Fibonacci retarcement of the the latest June to July bullish run around 111.60, which is acting as a resistance. 

On the four-hour time frame the price has crossed to above its 20-day SMA that is slightly uptrending, but remains below its 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI and stochastic had retreated from extreme oversold conditions. But stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum while RSI is loosing directional strength. 
Strong support is seen at 61.8% Fibo at 111.00 and in case for breaking it to below, the pair will accelerate its decline towards 110.50 (Monday’s low). 
Looking to the upside, resistance levels are located at 111.60 (today’s high) and 112.40(lats week’s high).





Wednesday, 26 July 2017

EUR/USD Turbulent around FOMC

The EUR/USD pair is acting very shaky today, having been around 1.1640 and afterwards dropped to 1.1612. But following FOMC the pair bounced to 1.1730, marking highest level for the past two and a half years.
On the four-hour time frame the price has crossed to above the 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are keeping upward slopes.
Stochastic retreated from the extreme oversold area and is showing strong bullish momentum. RSI is also heading north and is nearing overbought territory.
Indicators are confirming the short term bullish trend but a slight correction is not excluded.
First support is seen at 1.1690 and next at 1.1650. Looking to the upside, resistance levels are 1.1745 and higher at 1.1790.



Tuesday, 25 July 2017

AUD/USD ahead of Q2 CPI


The AUD/USD pair moved higher today and is going to close around 0.7940. Monday's high remains below with several pips, having in mind that the pair reached 0.7970 before retreating. 
The Aussie was was supported by the copper, that rallied to five-month high because of the the large Chinese demand and supply issues. 
Tomorrow the release radar is on Australia’s Q2 CPI with expectations slight above previous quarter. On the other side all ayes are on FOMC meeting and it will be curious how the pair will develop.
Technically speaking the four-hour time frame is showing neutral to bullish stance. The price is moving slightly above its 20-day SMA. RSI and stochastic are located above their mid-lines and both are loosing directional strength.
Friday's low at 0.7870 remains first support, while first resistance is seen at  0.7985



Monday, 24 July 2017

Where's your crown, King Nothing?




Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.
Beautifully written by Shakespeare. And how truly deeply and actually nowadays. 

But meanwhile on the other coast. 

A man is so self confident that is feeling himself as a king, that might rule the world.
The sophisticated propaganda of Trump starts crashing down and transforms into dust.
I would like just to point out the main terrifying things about what he did lately and there is no need to speak again how it sounds asynchronously with his propaganda before the  elections and how  absurd is his behaviour afterwards. 

He fired the director of the FBI for failing to demonstrate personal loyalty to him.

Shortly afterwards tried to intimidate his former FBI director into silence by threatening to release secret records of their conversations.

He encouraged America’s intelligence chiefs to undermine the FBI’s Russia probe.

It was very ugly that he 
undermined the international cooperation on climate change and America’s credibility.

A highly classified Israeli intelligence was shared with a core ally of Israel’s top geopolitical foe.
And afterwards publicly confirmed that he had done so.

Trump also abandoned an alliance with a longtime Middle East ally over Twitter.

The great error – he released a budget with a $2 trillion math mistake.

What was very crude – he shoved the prime minister of Montenegro out of his way, so that he could stand at the front of a group of NATO leaders. Unbelievable!

During his visit in Israel he signed Yad Vashem’s Book of Remembrance as though it were a middle-school yearbook. Just compare it with Obama’s writing!

Talking about kings I may not avoid quoting my favourite author Stephen King:
"A remarkable combination of unhinged and dumb as dirt." 
"Time to start talking impeachment. Really. Enough is enough." 

And as my favourite Metallica sing:
Then it all crashes down
And you break your crown
Just to play the King
But the castle;s crumbled and you’re left with just a name
Where is your crown, King Nothing?

US President Donald Trump is crossing very difficultly the wires, probably because it’s quite impossibly hard to wear even an imaginary crown trying to equilibrate between promises, lies and reality! Crownless or there is nothing to wear. Both and nothing.


Sunday, 23 July 2017

USD/JPY Found support at 61.8% Fibo

USD/JPY closed lower for consecutive week, dragging down on Friday to its lowest level for over a month at 111.00. The bad US macro data and falling US Treasury yields with the additional US political jitters helped the Japanese Yen to push higher. 
Technically speaking the pair found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its latest upward leg (110.95). Meanwhile the price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA. Indicators on the four-hour time frame are located within extreme oversold area, nevertheless they had retreated slightly. Upward correction seems to be limited now, having in mind that the price is moving quite below its moving averages.
Anyway, next we are expecting important and major macro data that will stir the market and will set more clear direction for the pair.  



Friday, 21 July 2017

The Crypto Hysteria VS How Comfortable Is To Be Living In A Bubble


Is it comfortable to be living in a bubble? Probably yes, as long as you do not see the trouble.
More than 900 different crypto-currencies and crypto-assets are launching on the market having another pretty much every day.
We might not be able to hear the coins’ sound anymore because anyone with a digital idea may slip a coin and go with it.
The dot-com history is repeating. Right now. 
We are witnessing now a king of crypto hysteria with the boom of the bitcoin, which is quite extraordinary. 
Since the beginning of the year the bitcoin is up with 140% and since July 17th has risen with 30%  and today the price skyrocketed to $2730.
Why the bitcoin is so often connected with a bubble and what has driven up the price? 
Is this a virtual tulip mania, a speculative hysteria or the rising price is the main driver for investing?

Well investors are encouraged by the rising price, no central banker and money printers may influence. The system may arrange you buying of whatever you like - from any junk food to computers. Whatever you like. 
This is a shape of digital gold. It’s meant to be exchanged into real currencies and regulators are considering to take it seriously. Very close example is Japan’s policy, which additionally boosted the price of the bitcoin.
However, I think that latest highs are somehow dizzying  and you should not consider your investments so seriously.
Also  the situation is not so quite dotty. It’s an innovation that might drive rise to more of it. 
But generally innovations are dangerous and the risk remains valid during balloon is inflated.
Currently it’s the paradise city for the scampers. And what of ICOs appear soon? There is no healthy bubble. 

And as Katy Perry sings:
Up there in utopia, where nothing will ever be enough
Happily numb
So comfortable, we're living in a bubble, bubble.

Take off the rose glasses!

Wednesday, 19 July 2017

USD/JPY The recovery seems quite unlikely

The USD/JPY pair fell today to 111.55,a level that has not been visited since June 27th having on the table the current US dollar's weakness. 
Good macro data came from the United States ahead of Wall Street's
opening, but it seems is was not too good to influence the pair. 
The four-hour time frame is showing strong bearish 20-day SMA and the price is developing below the 200-day SMA, while the 100-day SMA is staying flat around 112.91. 
RSI and stochastic are located withing extreme oversold area but had lost directional strength. 
The short term outlook remains bearish. 
First support is seen at 111.53 (the daily low) and next at 111.60. Looking to the upside, the pair challenged by 112.30 and higher at 112.70.


Monday, 17 July 2017

Aussie in power spirit

The amazing run of the Aussie finally peaked today at 0.7838, slightly above the high marked on April 17th 2016. The pair retreated from the mentioned high and is currently trading at 0.7800.
The excellent Chinese Q2 GDP data, which showed numbers beyond expectations, supported the pair with next on the list RBA, that will release the minutes of its latest meeting along with the upcoming June’s  employment data. 
The AUD/USD pair is keeping its power spirit despite the slight daily decline, having in mind that is still holding around the area of the muti months peak. 
On the four-hour time the price is developing well above its bullish 20-day SMA with the 100-day SMA turning from flat to north. RSI and stochastic had corrected from their extreme overbought conditions but yet remain well above their mid-lines. Both are neither quite bearish, neither pointing out clear direction. 
Overall the positive mood remains despite the daily retracement and bulls are targeting the 0.79 hurdle. 


GBP/USD Found support at 23.6% Fibo

The GBP/USD pair had corrected from the extreme overbought conditions from last Friday and today is seen gravitating around 1.30 area.
On the four-hour time frame the price keeps advancing above the uptrending 20-day SMA, while RSI and stochastic retreated from the their extreme values. Both indicators developed bearish slopes, but yet have not enough directional strength to confirm bears’ return.
As clearly seen on the chart the correction has stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest up leg – July 12th to July 14th, which is also acting as strong support level at 1.3040. In case of breaking this level, the pair will be poised to extend its decline towards 1.30 mark. 
Looking to the upside first resistance is seen at 1.3115 (Friday’s top) and next at 1.3160 9 (September 2016’s high).


Friday, 14 July 2017

UK Election Result, a Month Later - Webinar by ActivTrades



My broker ActivTrades held an excellent webinar on Wednesday, June 12th, named UK Election Result, a Month Later. It was led by the multy-dimensional trades expert, CEO of THE STOP HUNTER training and consultancy business, Stephen Hoad.
Mr. Hoad pointed out the main market conditions a month after the UK snap election and shared his market attitude and sentiment. It was quite interesting and useful information because it’s a good guideline for understanding the consequences of the election


GBP/USD At weekly high



On Wednesday the GBP/USD pair marked a two-week low at 1.2810, but since then we witnesses not just a recovery, but strong upward movement with a potentional fresh weekly top around 1.2975-1.2980 area.
Following Yellen’s dovish stance from Wednesday, the US dollar was seen weakened and meanwhile the UK labor market showed unexpected good numbers, which supported the pair to build this nice recovery.
On the four-hour time frame the parice has crossed to above the 20-day SMA, which has turned its direction to north. RSI and stochastic are displaying strong bullish momentum and are located within the positive territory.
Immediate support is located around 1.2930-1.2925 area and in case of breaking it to below, the pair is poised to meet net one at 1.2900.
Looking to the upside, momentum beyond the daily high could be extended towards the 1.30 mark. 


Thursday, 13 July 2017

AUD/USD Surged closer to the yearly high around 0.7740

From the beginning of the week the AUD/USD pair is showing string upward momentum and today marked daily high at 0.7739, which is few pips below the yearly high posted om March 21st.
This movement is of course well supported by sure fundamentals as the consumer inflation expectations for July are well increasing and meanwhile the Chinese trade surplus showed better that expected numbers.  
Technical indicators on the four-hour time frame are confirming the short term bullish outlook. The price is developing above its 20-day SMA while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat and are acting as dynamic supports around 0.7500 – 0.7535 area. Stochastic has turned sharply to north and RSI is nearing overbought territory. As both indicators are displaying strong upward momentum, some exhaustion is not excluded that could lead to slight correction. 
However the rally might be extended towards 0.7835 – the last year’s high, with some risk to keep in mind in case of abrupt retracement due to profit taking.


Wednesday, 12 July 2017

USD/JPY Broke to below the ascendant channel

During the early session today the USD/JPY pair dropped to 113.31 and later had retreated to 113.54. the greenback is still suffering due to the Trump Jr’s affairs and ahead of Fed's head Yellen testimony.  
Technically speaking the pair broke to below the ascendant channel and is currently developing below the 20-day SMA. 
The four-hour time frame is showing bearish signs. RSI is nearing oversold area and is slightly below its mid-line. Stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum and is located within negative territory. Nevertheless both indicators had lost directional strength. 
To confirm the bearish continuation the pair should fight the key support at 112.85. 



Tuesday, 11 July 2017

EUR/USD Skyrocketed to a fresh new yearly high


I thought that EUR/USD would be trading in limited range recent days, due to the lack of major macro releases recent days. In fact the week afead is offering plenty of data that will stir the markets. But surprisingly today the EUR/USD pair skyrocketed and marked a fresh new yearly high at 1.1479.
The greenback suffered very strongly after Trump Jr. published an e-mail exchange with the British publicist Rob Goldstone, who in fact had offered to set up the meeting with the Russian government meaning to incriminate Hillary Clinton and her dealings with Russia. This huge scandal also reflected over Wall Street and stocks went down. 
Technically speaking the price is likely to continue its bullish run and as seen on the four-hour time frame it’s advancing above the recent range. 
Meanwhile the price has crossed to above the 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are steaming to north. RSI and stochastic are showing strong bullish momentum and are nearing extreme overbought territory. 
Strong resistance is seen at 1.1494 (October’s 2015 high) and first support is located at 1.1380, next at 1.1340.



Friday, 7 July 2017

USD/JPY above 114.00

Since mid-June the USD/JPY pair broke the bearish trend line and is seen marching higher. Today the pair crossed to above the key level at 114.00 and marked two-month high at 114.17. 
The stronger NFP numbers today supported the greenback that was also supported by the rising yields.  
On the four-hour frame the 100-day SMA has crossed to above the 200-day SMA, while the 20-day SMA is showing strong bullish trend with all SMAs below the price development. RSI is aiming to positive territory and stochastic is displaying strong bullish momentum but has lost directional strength. Both indicators are quite hesitant to confirm further rally.
The pair recently is marking higher highs and higher lows and the outlook would turn into bearish only is breaking this structure.




Thursday, 6 July 2017

GBP/USD At 23.6% Fibo



From the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair keeps advancing and and in the early session today reached 1.2985. The pair couldn’t hold on this level and retreated to currently trade at 1.2930.
The demand for the greenback faded away mostly due to the absence of any hawkish surprise, shown by FOMC minutes. On the other hand, there no macro releases in UK today and most important that would stir the market remains the anticipation of NFP on Friday.
On the four-hour time frame the price has crossed to above the bearish 20-day SMA and is located very close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest rally. RSI has retreated from the overbought area and is showing strong bearish momentum, but yet is holding around it mid-lines. Stochastic is moving to the opposite and is heading north although has lost directional strength.  
To confirm the bullish trend, bulls must conquer first 1.2960 mark and next 1.2985 (today’s high). Until then the outlook remains neutral to bullish.


Wednesday, 5 July 2017

USD/JPY Marked fresh 2-month high

The USD/JPY pair pushed higher today and marked a fresh new two-month peak at 113.68. Ahead of the Wall Street opening the pair retreated slightly to currently trade at 113.19 as FOMC minutes are about to be released. Meanwhile earlier today the Japanese services PMI showed better than expected numbers, which supported the Japanese Yen. 
On the four-hour time frame the price is developing above the moving averages. RSI has retreated from overbought area and currently is located slightly above it’s mid-line. Stochastic is showing strong bearish momentum but is also placed above it’s mid-line. 
Overall indicators are rather marking upward exhaustion and are reflecting the ongoing consolidation.  





Monday, 3 July 2017

GBP/USD turned to downside

Last week the GBP/USD was seen uptrending and marked a monthly high at 1.3030. But start of the new week shifted the mood and the pair dropped to 1.2930. The Pound is hardly influenced by the bad macro figures as the Markit manufacturing PMI for June showed less than expected data. Beside this the expectations for BOE’s upcoming rate hike are decreasing, but it will become more clear this Tuesday when inflation report is due along with the construction PMI for June.
Technically speaking the four-hour time frame is showing some bearishness. The price has crossed to below the 20-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA is staying flat and is acting as dynamic support.RSI has sharply turned to south and stochastic is located within extreme oversold territory and is displaying strong bearish momentum.
Having in mind that last week the bulls coundn’t again conquer the psychological 1.30 mark, the short-term the sentiment remains bearish.