Tuesday, 29 November 2016

GBP/USD: Posting Highs But Still Remains Range Bound

Before the release of the money and credit UK data today the GBP/USD pair has been struck within the 1.24 levels. But the better-than-expected reports pushed the pair higher to reach daily high at 1.2526. Afterwards the retreated slightly and the current market price is 1.2492. 
As it is clearly seen on the H4 chart the pair crossed over the 20-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, but meanwhile the 100-day and 200-day EMAs are staying flat, which is hinting neutral shades. 
RSI is muted on 56.50 level while stochastic is pointing north, nearing extreme overbought conditions, but displaying bullish momentum. 
The cable held above the daily prevailing mood from 1.2380 area, but still the pair is capped by the strong resistance at 1.2529.

Monday, 28 November 2016

EUR/USD Rocks The Cradle Of Uncertainty

A slight elevation was seen today during the European session on the EUR/USD pair, having marked an intraday high at 1.0687. Bur shortly afterwards the pair was down and posted a low at 1.0564.
It’s a quite important week for the US dollar with the NFP data upcoming on Friday, along with the preliminary estimates on Q3 GDP and the ADP numbers on Wednesday. Meanwhile Europe is offering a major event with risk behaviour on markets – the Italian referendum. The coincidence and the combination of these fundamentals implies strong influence on the pair. 
Considering the above the pair is teased to try levels higher that 1.0600. In anticipation of the development it’s not clear yet weather the bulls will be strong enough to conquer higher levels or will step down and retest the 1.0500 level.
RSI is currently located around 45 and is displaying lack of momentum. Stochastic is recovering from the oversold area and showing weak bullish signs.
Resistance is seen at 1.5898 (the 200-day SMA) and next is placed at 1.6022 (the 20-day SMA). The 100-day SMA is acting now as a support and is currently being at 1.5898. The key support remains the 1.0550 level. 
Currently both fundamentals and technical readings are not talking sure enough to set clear direction for the pair. So in this uncertain situation I'm going be only an observer.


Friday, 25 November 2016

Tuneless Cable

Tuneless GDP data, along with the observed matter for the Q3. Strong investment numbers, better than expected CBI retail sales November posts.
But this seems not to be powerful enough to influence the Sterling. 
Yesterday the GBP/USD pair marked choppy trading but with very close values of opening and closing price, respectively 1.2437 and 1.2446.
Technical reading are showing neutral to negative stance. RSI is placed within middle lines, while stochastic is displaying overbought market.
In the short-term the pair is still consolidating around 1.2400 level. Support is located at 1.2203 and lower at 1.2079. Resistance is seen at 1.2529 and higher at 1.2665.

Thursday, 24 November 2016

The Pleasure Cruise Of US Dollar Against The Japanese Yen

Flown in the swiftness of time now the safe-haven is biting the dust on the roller coaster ride.
The Japanese Yen is currently weaker and pressured by the greenback. During today’s trading the USD/JPY pait marked an intraday high at 113.52. A level not seen since late March 2016.  
The mixed Japanese macro data released today additionally influenced the pair.The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI didn’t achieved the target set. But the Japanese leading economic index for September posted relevant numbers.      
Technical readings are shifting the mood into positive sounds. The price is placed well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages. RSI is placed within extreme values and showing bullish trend. Stochastic is also pointing extreme overbought market but displaying lack of momentum. 
First support is located at 109.19 and second at 108.52. Looking to the upside, bulls are targeting the first resistance placed at 113.82. In case of conquering it, next will be thinking of 114.63.

Wednesday, 23 November 2016

EUR/USD Poised To Extend Slide

Yet another set of selling pressure fell upon the EUR/USD pair today. The US dollar is getting stronger, the pair is marking its lowest level for the last almost 12 months and is currently trading at 1.0556.
The US marco data released today posted positive numbers, much better than expected. The FOMC minutes from today’s meeting are confirming the market attitudes for the upcoming rates hike. Given above the US dollar’s elevation seems to be reasonable.
During the afternoon trading the pair posted intraday low at 1.0523 even though shortly afterwards managed to recover slightly.
Technical readings are showing oversold market. RSI is placed at 30% area, while stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum. 
Currently the EUR/USD pair is exposed to further downward slope, having in mind that is placed below 1.0600 area and also below the moving averages. 
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0605, where now is lying the 20-day SMA. Support is located at 1.0525 and lower at 1.0500. 

Tuesday, 22 November 2016

Golden Bulls Yet Among The Market

The US dollar’s strengthening, the expected interest rates hike and the lower risk and volatility in stock markets are most important factors that are driving gold prices down. The exposed Trump’s program for boosting the GDP definitely will lead to rising interest rates and stronger US dollar, which is attracting for investors. Hence this is bullish for the dollar, gold is going to suffer. 
But in case we are having long term interest rates increase, this does not always mean that we will have falling prices in gold. According to the World Gold Council the average gold returns were positive as long as interest rates increased gradually and didn’t reach extremely high levels - over 4%. Some economists have shared the opinion that during Trump’s presidency a recession will be a fact, because the current expansion on stock markets is taking too long time. In this common, the investors in gold mining companies should consider this and take steps for profit taking, but instead of this the observation is that they keep their investments for a longer term. 
And while we are witnessing the brutal post election sell-off, shall we abandon all things gold?
In fact the post elections fever dumped the gold hedges  and the gold suffered huge drop for the last 3 weeks. Obsessed by the fear of the unexpected, traders generated enormous sell offs and couldn’t think deeper over the market situation. If looking inside the gold stocks’ fundamentals there might be found an amazing way to fight the prevailing fear. 
The gold miners just released their third-quarter results, which proved very impressive. I suggest you to look at the below GDX Component Comapnies’ Fundamentals Q3’2016 table.  Lower costs and higher gold prices usually lead to surging operating cash flows and profits and the gold miners’ fundamentals are stronger now. So golden bulls are still among the market.

Monday, 21 November 2016

USD/JPY at extremely overbought conditions

During the last week the USD/JPY pair continued to climb up and topped at 110.91. Today the pair is seen even higher and marked an intraday high at 111. 33, a level that has not been visited since late May. In the short term the downward movement seems to be limited, as 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages remain well below the current level.
As it is clearly seen on the H4 the technical indicators are placed at extreme overbought area. RSI is starting some correction from the overbought area, while stochastic is showing lack of momentum.
The bias remains bullish for testing 111.50. A clear break and daily close above this level could trigger further upside pressure towards 113.50 this week. The nearest support is located at 110.35. A possible break below that area could lead the pair to neutral trading levels with testing 109.80, but still the bulls possess the short term development for the upcoming days. 

Friday, 18 November 2016

Shining Dawn Tumbles Down

While markets are relatively calm now as Trump’s victory seems to be digested, Gold is extending sell-offs and slided downwards to pin lowest level, not seen since May 2016. Furthermore we have two key factors, that have influenced negatively to the precious metal – the sell-off in treasuries and the rising expectations of the forthcoming Fed rate-hike action.

Technical indicators are showing oversold conditions. RSI is sliding around 30% and stochastic is placed within extreme low values and is displaying weak bearish momentum. 
At the time of writing XAU/USD is trading at $1207 and has crossed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1210, acting as a strong support. Meanwhile the 50-day moving average crossed with the 200-day moving average and has passed below it. This could only increase the pressure on Gold as this situation is interpreted differently by traders. 
In the short-term expectations remain bearish with eventual further drop to next support, located at $1172 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).

Financial Trading Summit 2016 by ActivTrades

Tomorrow 19th November 2016 ActivTrades is hosting an essential event - Financial Trading Summit 2016. It will take place from 9:30 to 17:30 in the 5-star May Fair Hotel in London.

During the Summit trading experts will share their style of trading, will
 equip you with essential strategies needed to start or enhance your trading.You will receive insights on how to master your trading  psychology and much more. 

On this incredible event you will meet the best ActivTraders speakers, such as:

- Mr. Paul Wallace, a professional financial trader with more than 24 years’ experience working in competitive, results-driven, performance environments, will speak on how to build a trading position;
- Mr. Martin Walker, a full time Trader, Trading Educator and Mentor, will guide us thrоugh the forex traders’ essentials;
- Ms Catherine Stott, author of ‘HypnoTrading: a practical guide to using hypnosis and NLP to improve your trading performance’, will present us the main prospects in forex traders psychology;
- Dr. Andrew Lumsden-Groom, Kenneth Stanion and Pratik Thakar will clarify for us the institutional methods for the retail environment.

Besides the opportunity to discuss various topics with these experts. ActivTrades is giving away access to all of the participants in a two-week online course worth GBP495.

Thursday, 17 November 2016

GBP/USD at neutral stance

The GBP/USD pair was trading lower during yesterday’s session and remained under the 50-day moving average. Today the pair is seen slightly elevated especially in the morning, when the UK retail sales data was released and surprised with better than expected numbers. Anyway this is not enough to support the Pound in the near future as all eyes are focused on the upcoming Fed’s meeting and considering the rising expectations for rate hike.
RSI is currently placed withing the mid lines and showing lack of momentum. Stochastic is indicating bearish signs and moving downwards from the mid-lines. Both indicators are not pointing bullishness. Testing the support at 1.2350 will hint the short-term attitudes. If crossing this line, a slide towards the next support at 1.2090 is expected. Looking to the upside resistances are seen at 1.2545, 1.2670 and 1.2775.

Tuesday, 15 November 2016

EUR/USD: Rolling To The Deep

Trump’s win seems now to be digested by market participants and the US dollar’s strength is loosing momentum. During the Asian session the EUR/USD pair pushed slightly higher and topped at 1.0815, but later on the freshly released EU macro data moved the pair back to previous positions. 
Another macro data today was released from the US calendar, showing better than expected numbers on retail sales. So for shortly the US dollar was uplifted, but currently the pair is trading at 1.0718 and is heading to lowest levels for the week. 
RSI is placed at around 36% and is loosing momentum. Stochastic is located at extreme oversold area and also pointing lack of momentum. Both indicator remain flat within bearish area and confirming the downward slope.

USD/JPY: Bulls Aiming 111.00 Level

USD/JPY posted strong growth on Monday with daily gains of + 1.44%. The pair broke the important area at 107.50/107.80 and marked fresh high at 108.52.  
The Yen was influenced by the positive GDP data and Kuroda’s speech, who pointed that the inflation will rise slowly and monetary policy will not change until inflation reaches the target of 2%. Meanwhile Fed’s rate hike in December is also relevant to the pair with expectations have risen sharply after Trump’s win. 
Technically speaking, bulls are now fuelled to continue slowly upwards and test the next key resistance level at 111.00/111.60. RSI and Stochastic are placed now at overbought territory with the pair breaking the 200-day moving average, which is pointing that correction is not excluded. 

Sunday, 13 November 2016

Gold: Disturbed By The Sound Of Populism

Running through the memory of 2016 Gold is seen on the street of dreams. Lows, highs, runaways. Brexit case elevated the spirit and affected positively to the forever safe-heaven commodity. But now Trump’s victory set another brick in the wall and Gold parted with the $1300 levels.
During the past week the yellow metal is down with 6%. The initial enthusiasm lifted up the rate, but now it seems that the tale was not right and a dramatic reversal followed.
Current the price is placed at $1226. Applying the retrospective 2016 upside movement, first support is seen at 50% Fibo retracement $1223 and second is lying at May’s $1198. Looking to the upside $1284 is a key level that might relight the bulls power.
Indicators readings are indicating oversold market and showing lack of momentum.  

Saturday, 12 November 2016

EUR/USD: Far Outside The Realm Of Expectations

48 hours after the US presidential elections, investors continued to buy US dollars. No surprise to anyone that the choice of the Americans came unexpected even to themselves as the high volatility of markets continued throughout the day. Instead of negativism, Trump’s victory resulted in additional investment assets as ultimately analysts expect that choice to be positive for the US economy.
At the end of the week the euro remained highly pressured by the US dollar, pinned at new fresh 8-month low at 1.0828 and closed at 1.0852. 
From retrospective viewpoint EUR/USD dropped with around 300 pips comparing with just a week ago levels. On Wednesday early morning the pair topped at 1.30 and according to current level, makes some 450 pips drop. A huge drop. A dramatic turn. And the worst performance for the year. The downside movement for the pair seems to be favoured having in mind that now the focus is set on the Fed’s meeting next month and the divergent monetary policy outlook. The technical reading also confirm the bearish trend. RSI is indicating oversold conditions as well as the stochastic, which is showing lack of momentum.

Wednesday, 9 November 2016

The Trump factor high rocketed the USD/JPY pair

As expected there was high volatility and this naturally perplexed the markets. The winner turned to be Trump and therefore the US Dollar began to weaken against the major currencies. The Mexican peso hit a record low. The greenback began to weaken against the Japanese Yen and the EUR as well and pinned 101.20 and 1.1300 respectively. Looking for safety, markets turned to more secure currencies – the Japanese Yen and the Swiss franc.  

After marking the low at 101.20, the USD/JPY pair quickly pushed higher to print new fresh 4-month high at 105.85. Although at the moment the uncertainty has gripped the markets, the pair is continuing its rally, as seen on the 4-hour chart. 
And indicators seem to favour the rally. Its clearly seen the sharp bounce from the oversold areas. RSI is showing overbought market and is currently placed at 63%. Stochastic turned to north and is also confirming the strong bullish slope. Another point is that the price has returned back above the levels of the 100-day and 200-day SMA. 
First resistance is seen now at 106.00 while the first support is currently located at 105.50.

Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Thriller, votes and EUR/USD

EUR/USD was thrilled during yesterday’s trading and tried to push higher, marked an intraday high at 1.1110, but closed lower at 1.1040. The pair sloped under the range and couldn’t clearly break above the 200-day ЕМА. 
Monday’s mood seems to be extended into today as markets are already pricing the US votes. Initial results are showing a slight advantage for Mrs Clinton and therefore equities and commodities currencies were elevated. Meanwhile some macro data in Europe was release, but markets ignored it, as the attention is focused on the US election day.
The EUR/USD is feeling under great pressure and the pair fell to previous lows and was testing the 1.1010 level. Clinton’s victory might drive the pair downwards to October 25th low at 1.0850.
Indicators are placed within negative territory. RSI is currently at around 36% level and stochastic is showing oversold market, both confirming the bearish trend. 
Anyway the elections results have the last saying and the pair’s direction is still being uncertain. 


Monday, 7 November 2016

A new chapter is about to be written

The week ahead is expected to be exciting as the major event that will run the markets is the US presidential elections. The first data from the elections will be released (09:00 GMT) and inevitably will impact to the financial markets not only in the US, but in Europe and Asia as well. 
Theoretically and in general terms in case of Hillary Clinton win this would bring more predictability in both foreign and domestic policy in the United States. Clinton’s campaign  was largely predicting a continuation of Obama’s economic policy with some slight additions. This will increase US dollar’s strength against the yen, Swiss franc and the euro.
Donald Trump's intentions in foreign policy and the economy so far are not very clear. Therefore in case of win, that suggests that the US dollar will fall against other major currencies.
Who will be the new US president is of great importance for the energy sector in the US. Hillary Clinton’s victory would lead to shrinking of oil production, since her vision is that we must give priority to renewable energy sources. Donald Trump favors the traditional sources of energy and if he becomes president, the expected oil production in the United States will be maintained or increased - which will affect the price of the "black gold".

Friday, 4 November 2016

US Election Fever: Which way will it go? | ActivTrades Webinar Review

2016 so far I may say showed jitters and served enough significant events that influenced the markets. Brexit uncertainty, gold strength, China’s hesitations, the US dollar’s pains and gains, the expectations, will or wont central bankers raise the interest rates and the European banking meltdown. What a year!

But in fact the final quarter is proposing one of the biggest geo-political events – the US elections. Donald Trump’s surprise win of the Republican nomination, the hell-bent battle between him and Hillary Clinton, the inevitable change in political direction that came out. This event will take place on 8th November when the actual elections will happen. The time has almost come and chills the market participants to the bone, because we all now hear the ticking of the clock.

So, what does this actually mean and are you going to make the rest of this year your best year?
How to utilise the information to build a trading plan and how do we trade the US elections fever? This was widely discussed by the professional trader Paul Wallace on a free online webinar organized by my broker ActivTrades yesterday.

The following scenarios were pointed:
1/ In case of Clinton win markets will expect to see US dollar’s strength, gold weakness, initial US equity and index strength and A&D sector strength.
2/ A trump win we’d expect to see US indices weakness, US dollar weakness initially and CHF&JPY strength.
3/ A tie/small win for either side would be damaging for US prestige and therefore the markets. And then will follow weakness in US indiced and US dollar weakness, CHF, JPY&EUR strength.

The main currency pair that will affected by the US election, namely USD/MXN, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD,  as well as gold and US indixes were technically observed.

In case you have missed this opportunity, worry not as the archive section is on your disiposal any time. 

Thursday, 3 November 2016

GBP/USD bullish

Since the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair performed excellent and is showing signs that the rally might be extended. During today’s session the pair pinned new fresh high at 1.2495, which is the highest level since 7th of October. 
Of course today a good pack of fundamental news was served and supported the Pound. The UK Markit services PMI for October showed very good numbers and BoE, as it was expected, announced that will keep its monetary policy unchanged.
RSI is indicating an extreme overbought market, but continues to support the bulls and another trigger seems to be the crossing the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Stochastic is also showing overbought conditions and is slightly loosing strength.
The pair is facing strong resistance at 1.2480,second one is placed at 1.2775. Support is seen at 1.2230 and lower at 1.2090. 

Wednesday, 2 November 2016

Gold higher

During the past three weeks Gold was trading lower, but few days ago started to move to the upside. Bulls have found enough strength to conquer the strong resistance located at $1280 (Fibo 38.2%, formed by September 22th high at $1343 and October 7th low at $1241). Gold even extended its strong bullish movement and bulls attacked the Fibo 61.8% at $1304 to currently trade at $1305, which is an almost one month high.
Considering the fact that the US dollar is suffering now and is vulnerable by Fed’s decisions on monetary policy and also by the upcoming elections in the United States, market participants turned eyes to the safe heaven precious metal. 
RSI is placed now at the oversold area, pointing north and confirm the bullish trend. Stochastic is showing extreme an overbought market and is displaying lack of momentum.
In case of closing above $1292, the strong upward movement will be confirmed. Next resistance is located at $1307. Looking to downside first support is seen at $1287 and second at $1287.

Tuesday, 1 November 2016

USD/JPY turned to shade of pale

Bulls gave all the power they had and almost gave themselves one more chance. The last week  USD/JPY pushed above the important resistance level at 104.31. However, this upward movement was accompanied by bearish divergence, shown by MACD, which hinted of bulls weakness.
The fundamentals now support the appreciation of the US dollar, which would mirror the increase in this currency pair. The difference in the Fed’s BoJ’s monetary policy will continue to influence the dynamics in the pair. The Bank of Japan decided to keep its economic policy unchanged, but the yen react to the news significantly. 
Currently the USD/JPY pair fell to lower levels and pined intraday low at 103.787. As seen on the chart some further slides are very possible. 
RSI is located in the oversold area, currently around 24%. Momentum is also situated at the oversold territory and both indicators are displaying bearish slopes. 
Support is placed now at 103.50 and lower at 103.10. Resistance is seen at 104.20 and 104.62.