Monday, 21 May 2018

The British bears are rolling in the deep


Druging the past two weeks the Cable was developoing above the crytical suppor area at 1.3500 but even the uplifted mood that brought the royal wedding couldn’t keep it over there until today. This mornign the USD/GBP pair plummeted and pinned fresh new 2018 low at 1.3390 as a new episode from the Brexit saga was released. The bearish break was fueled by the that Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon who  pledged to restart a drive for Scottish independence.
As seen on the four hour time frame the price abandoned its latest range and now is developing well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are starting to bounce from their lowest levels but yet remian below their mid-line and seems taht are looking for direction.
However the British bears are now ruling the trend. Breaking the key support at 1.3500 is of significant importance as this is a historical level, being attarating the bears since January 2009. So from here we might expect test of 1.3320 area and the creation of new yearly low.




Friday, 18 May 2018

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Thursday, 17 May 2018

USD/CAD Bulls are eyeing 1.2800


USD/CAD bounced from the daily lows around 1.2750 and is advancing towards 1.2800. The US bulls resumed their march to the upside, supported by the rising US yields, while the Canadian dollar  gave away gains after the backing of WTI latest highs.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its flat SMAs. Stochastic is recovering from extreme oversold area and has turned to north although is yet below 20. RSI is showing good upward momentum and is nearing its mid-line.
However to resume the bullish trend the pair will need to retake the resistance provided by the 100-day SMA at 1.2840 and then to fight the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2017 bearish run at 1.2930. Further on doors are opened for testing the May’s high at 1.2996. Looking to the downside first support is offered by the 61.8% Fibo of same retracement at  1.2730 and next one is seen at 1.2650.


Wednesday, 16 May 2018

USD/JPY Develops within ascendant channel


The last release of Japan’s economic growth showed weak figures and blurred the lines of Abenomics reforms, and of course reduced the likelihood of tightening the BoJ’s monetary policy in the near future. Technically speaking this weakness supported the US bulls who are already gaining strength during the last sessions. The USD/JPY today attacked the February’s high and currently is trading slightly above the 200-day SMA at 110.36. As seen on the daily chart the price is developing within the current bullish channel, that has started from late March. RSI and stochastic are showing strong upward momentum and are close to overbought areas. Meanwhile the pair is located fairly in middle of the channel, so now we should consider both the upside and down side. Reversals would  be supported by the lower bound of the channel, which currently comes at 109.40. On the other hand the more likely scenario is bullish continuation towards the resistance at 110.40, which is broken to above would open doors for testing the upper channel’s bound at 111.40.



Tuesday, 15 May 2018

Gold below $1300 with bearish bias


The perceived safe haven precious metal broke the critical $1300 barrier today and marked a fresh 4-month low at $1288. US bulls and some technical factors pushed the price to the downside. DXY jumped to 93.28 after the release of US retail sales data, but the main driver of grenback’s strength are the rising US yields, which pinned today the highest level since 2011.
Technically speaking the bias is clearly bearish. XAU/USD broke the key support provided by 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January bullish run at $1300. The slide continued and tested the 61.8% of same Fibo and finally the price bounced slightly to currently trade at $1292.
Ont he daily chart stochastic and RSI are showing strong bearish momentum and both are located below their mid-lines.
If the current breakdown is sustained, gold might meet again the 61.8% Fibo at $1286 before it has any chance to rebuild. However, the $1300 level remains reclaimed decisively so the bullish stance is rejected. Furthermore if the price goes back above the resistance provided by 50% FIbo at $1302 then we might conclude that today’s sell-off could be a false breaks. Golden bulls could return only if  breaking the recent swing high at $1325. But for now the path is paved towards the downside. 




Monday, 14 May 2018

EUR/JPY Retracing between Fibo levels


The EUR/JPY started the new trading week uplifted and reached intraday high at 131.40, up 0.26% for the day. But couldn’t keep the breeze and go as met high wave that tumbled the pair and currently its thrown into the shallows of 131.00.
As seen on the four hour time frame the pair visited today two important Fibonacci retracement levels of latest April to May bearish run. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs had eased their bearish slopes and are crossing each other around the daily resistance that coincides with the 50% Fibo, while the 20-day SMA is holding to the upside. RSI and stochastic retreated from overbought areas and are showing strong bearish momentum.  
So technically speaking the short-term outlook seems to be bearish. However in the medium-term the trend is bullish and thus seen the current drop might be considered as a pull back before the next attack of the bulls.  First target to meet is the daily high at 131.40 and next comes with the 132.00 figure. The downside is supported by 131.00 followed by 130.78 swing high and then 130.00 swing low.
Key events for the single currency are scheduled for tomorrow with the Eurozone and Germany GDP data and the German Zew survey and in case of surprisingly good numbers can fuel additionally the euro bulls.




Friday, 11 May 2018

USD/CHF Losing upside momentum


USD/CHF is losing upside momentum and yesterday slid below the ascending channel that has started from April 7th.  The price reached bottom at 0.9993 but closed higher at 1.0027 and thus moved back into the price channel. But as seen on the hourly chart today the pair reversed the trend and yesterday’s bottom and intraday support at 0.9930, which is located just above the hourly  200-day EMA, was tested again. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold areas, but yet there is room for further declines. A clear break and a daily/weekly closure below it will disrupt the upward phase. Then the cross will meet next  support at the 0.9845 (January high)