Friday, 20 July 2018

USD/CAD Upbeat Canadian data supported the Loonie


The USD/CAD is trading around 1.3130, having marked  1.08 % down for the day after upbeat Canadian economic data today. Inflation is up with 2.5% for June, beating the expectations for 2.4% and retail sales also showed better than expected figures - 2.0% rise in May against the forecasted 1.1%. Meanwhile the US dollar still suffers because of Trump’s comments on Fed’s policy that rate hikes are causing troubles on the economic progress.
Technically speaking the short-term outlook remains bearish. On the four hour time frame the prices is developing below its flat moving averages. RSI is locates at 38 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic is displaying strong downward slope and has entered into oversold area. 
The pair fell with almost 140 pips today from its daily high, surpassed the 1.3155 support area and is suggesting a slowdown of the bullish trend. Should the pair break the next support at 1.3110 then doors are opened for testing 1.3065.




Thursday, 19 July 2018

USD/JPY Plunged on Trump's comments


During the European session the USD/JPY pair skyrocketed and reached highest levels since early January, having marked daily high at 113.18. But Trump’s comments on Fed’s policy that rate hikes are causing troubles on the economic progress made bulls give up. Earlier today the data from Japan showed better than expected numbers on trade balance while imports printed huge drop comparing to previous month (from 14% to 2.5%).
Currenlty the pair is trading at 112.48 after had pinned daily low at 112.05. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish moving averages, so the long term uptrend is not at risk. RSI and stochastic are displaying strong bearish slopes and are close to oversold territories. Further declines are expected in case of closing below the daily low which will bring next bearsih target at 111.80. On the other hand bulls might try to fight the first resistance at 112.60 which if broken will offer next one at 113.00.





Wednesday, 18 July 2018

EUR/USD Forming triangle pattern


The single currently pressured the 1.1600 level in the early trading hours as the US dollar gathered strength on the outlook for the US economy presented by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in Congress as well as by Kansas City Fed President George. Both officials shared opinion that the US economy is expected to remain strong with employment and inflation rising that justifies the gradual monetary policy normalisation with rates going higher.
As seen on the daily chart since mid June the EUR/USD pair is consolidating below the 1.1800 handle and above the
resistance turned то support which is the top of the two-year range.
On the same chart the price is currently forming a triangle pattern,тhat often comes before the trend continuation,but having in mind the previous drops bring bearish implications. In case of closing below the triangle bottom, doors are opened for testing the support zone at 1.1520 – 1.1570.


Tuesday, 17 July 2018

Friends Will Be Friends




Quite inconvenient and surreal, but spectacular. That’s how the most important geopolitical event was held.
If, as in the World Cup, the winner, the top scorer and the best footballer of the championship were awarded, after the meeting in Helsinki between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin yesterday, the Russian president would leave with all the awards. 
But that’s not the most important. The events that unfolded are likely to have significant and unpredictable political and geopolitical reverberations and profound consequences in Washington and beyond. 
In the press conference following the summit, the US president stated that he trusted the word of the Russian leader as much as that of his own intelligence chief. This strategy is like letting a criminal investigate their own crimes.
But here, perhaps, someone had to remind President Trump that the FBI, Hillary Clinton or Special Prosecutor Robert Muller had not invaded and occupied Crimea in 2014. And none of these people are involved in the coup attempt in Montenegro in 2016. And that none of these people are investing money and efforts to break the negotiations between the Republic of Macedonia and Greece and to "halt" the Euro-Atlantic perspective in the Western Balkans.
The US president, in the presence of Vladimir Putin, delegates the US intelligence and security services, including a clear consensus on the Kremlin's intervention in the US elections. And this is the most serious mistake in Trump's presidency.
Paradoxically, the Russian president has better expressed the critical position of the United States (and the EU) on the current status of the Crimea than Donald Trump did.
We have a brekaing news - Trump and Putin are BFFs now.

There is an interesting definition for quisling, otherwise known as "a person who betrays his or her own country by aiding an invading enemy, often serving later in a puppet government."


And as my idol Freddie Mercury sings:
It's not easy love, but you've got friends you can trust
Friends will be friends
When you're in need of love they give you care and attention
Friends will be friends.


Yes, it’s not an easy love.



AUD/USD Above 0.7400 ahead of Powell's speech


The AUD/USD pair is trading within tight range today around 0.7400, having marked daily high at 0.7437 during the Asian session. During the early trading hours the RBA meeting minutes revealed that the next move on rates in Australia will likely be up, once the unemployment lowers and inflation marks growth. Meanwhile the US dollar is gaining strength ahead of US federal Reserve’s chairman Jerome Powells testimony in Congress later on today.
Technically speaking the short term outlook remains neutral. On the four hour time frame the price is developing between its flat moving averages. RSI and stochastic are displaying bearish slopes slightly below their mid-lines and still remain far from extreme negative territories. According to above readings a risk of downward continuation will appear only is case of breaking the support at 0.7370 en route to next one at 0.7330. On the other hand bulls could get some love if pushing above the daily high and then next target will be offered by the resistance at 0.7490.


Saturday, 14 July 2018

Trump’s trade war impact on consumer confidence in USA


The confidence of US consumers in the economic development of the country declined in July to a six-month low - primarily because of concerns about new customs tariffs on imports of goods into the United States. The US consumer confidence index fell to 97.1 points in July from 98.2 points in June, with a median forecast in the financial markets for a much modest decline to 98.0 points, the lowest level of the January index here.
Despite the surprising deterioration the July index level remained close to the average of 97.7 in the previous twelve months and is still 4% above the year-ago rate thanks to robust job growth employment and very low unemployment.
So far, job and income growth has been able to offset higher inflation and interest rates. However, the clouds on the horizon are due to growing concerns about the potential negative impact of customs tariffs on the national economy. Fears of the negative impact of high tariffs have increased recently, rising from 15%, according to surveyed Americans in May, to 21% in June and to 38% in July. The consumer expectations index for future economic activity improved slightly to 86.4 points from 86.3 points a month earlier, while the index defining the current US consumer rating for the country's economic conditions fell sharply in July to 113.9 points from 116.5 points in June.


Friday, 13 July 2018

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