Tuesday, 19 September 2017

USD/JPY Tested the 61.8% Fibo

During the early European session the USD/JPY pair tested the critical resistance at 111.76 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 114.50 to 107.35 drop)  and marched higher to mark fresh high at 111.89. However the pair couldn’t find enough strength to hold around this level and retreated lower to currently trade at 111.50. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages. RSI is located slightly above its mid-line and is losing directional strength, while stochastic is displaying strong bearish momentum. Bulls rally is not yet endangered unless the pair closes below 110.90 (50% Fibonacci retracement of same July to September decline). All eyes on FOMC tomorrow which will set more clear direction anyway. 

EUR/USD A bit up after the German ZEW survey

The German ZEW survey showed more than expected improvement in the economic sentiment, which is supporting today the single currency. EUR/USD is seen higher today and reached 1.2005 before retreating to 1.1987, the current market price. On the four hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages with the 20-day SMA turning to upwards and is crossing with the 100-day SMA at 1.1940. RSI and stochastic had turned to north but yet are not displaying enough strength to see bulls back in the game.  The pair should conquer the resistance at 1.2030 in order to advance higher and to confirm the bullish outlook.  No meaningful macro data will be released till the end of the day and FOMC meeting remains the key market driver, so narrow ranges will prevail until Wednesday.

Monday, 18 September 2017


The GBP/USD pair retreated from Friday’s high after Carney’s speech at the IMF and lost more than 200 pips today. The reversal technically is reasonable after the double top pattern at 1.3617, clearly seen on the four hour time frame. RSI and stochastic are moving away from the extreme overbought territory,where entered during the BoE rally, but yet remain above their mid-lines. Meanwhile the 20-day SMA is keeping its bullish slope, but the price is nearing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its latest upleg, which is acting as immediate support around 1.3420. 
From fundamental point of view, the agenda has nothing to offer from UK and now FOMC comes on sight. But having in mind that Fed’s rate hike is old  news, markets more likely will be attracted by the extravagance of BoE. 

AUD/USD Bearish intraday outlook

During the Asian session the AUD/USD pair was trading around Friday’s high at 0.8030, but later in the day failed to motivate the market participants and dropped below the 0.8000 mark to currently trade at 0.7991, down with 0.15%. RBA and FOMC come in sight this week, so we may expect some interesting moves in the pair. But in short term the outlook remain bearish, according to the indicators on the four hour time frame. The price has crossed to below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 200-day is staying flat around 0.7940 and as the time of writing is nearing the bullish 100-day SMA around 0.7990. Stochastic has retreated from the extreme overbought territory and is displaying strong bearish momentum. RSI is also aiming south and is slightly below its mid line. First support is seen at 0.7970 (last week’s low) and in case of breaking it, the pair is poised to decline further towards 0.7945.

Friday, 15 September 2017

EUR/USD Nears 1.20 on poor US retails sales

The single currency has recovered and gains momentum for second session, well supported by the stronger pound that weighed on the US dollar, further affected by the US Retail Sales figures for August, down with 0.2% from a month earlier.
The EUR/USD pair keeps advancing today and reached daily high at 1.1985, which is the current market price. On the four-hour time frame the price is moving above its moving averages with 20-day and 100-day crossing at 1.1920 area and are providing good support, below which bears could be seen back in the game. RSI and stochastic are displaying strong bullish momentum and both are aiming the overbought territory.  
The short-term outlook bullish, especially if the pair accelerate and hold above the 1.1990 area then next target will be 1.1230.

Thursday, 14 September 2017

Aussie is under pressure despite the strong employment report

The Australian macro data released today was not quite good to boost the Aussie. The AUD/USD pair is trading at weekly lows and is closing the day below the 0.8000 handle and having marked daily low at  0.7956.
Technically speaking the pair is showing bearish signs on the four-hour time frame. The price is moving well below its bearish 20-day SMA, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are staying flat and are providing good support levels. RSI and stochastic are located below their mid-lines and both had lost directional strength. 
Key support is seen at 0.7965 and if breaking below it, the pair could be dragged even lower towards 0.7930. Strong challenge for the bulls remains the psychological level 0.8000 and in case of conquering it, next target would be 0.8035.

GBP/USD BoE boosted the Pound

It’s been a quite volatile day in the markets, with the Pound occupying the centre of the stage on the back of a hawkish BoE’s policy statement. GBP/USD marked highest level since September 2016, rising up to 1.3404, with over pips from its daily low with the release outcome. It’s interesting that the greenback failed to rally, as it was expected,  despite the good news from the US as CPI is up with 0.4% month-over-month, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 1.9%.
Technically speaking the short-term trend remains bullish. On the four-hour time frame the price accelerated through its bullish 20-day SMA, which is advancing above its current level and is gaining upward strength. Indicators are located within extreme overbought territory with RSI loosing directional strength and stochastic keeping strong bullish momentum. 
Bulls are now eyeing 1.3410 with stronger challenge ta 1.3445. The downside is limited by 1.3325/30 level, a resistance turned into support.