Monday, 23 October 2017

May you live in interesting times

The irony of this seemingly a blessing and considered as a Chinese curse, composes the world lately and brought meaning to my reading of the news over the weekend.
In fact,
despite being widely attributed as a Chinese curse, there is no equivalent expression in Chinese. The nearest related Chinese expression sounds much more like "Better to be a dog in a peaceful time, than to be a human in a chaotic period.

That’s how probably felt Nemo, the French President Macron’s dos, when interrupted the talks of inner-city investments with junior ministers at the presidential office and took a leak against the fireplace. Probably Nemo thought that fireplace was actually Trump.





Meanwhile on the other coast the US President is struggling for his tax reform, having claimed that it’s a ‘middle class tax break that works’  and Republicans had been mulling lowering the annual deduction. Also he did an agreement with Japan’s PM Abe to work together over the rising pressure form North Korea. You see how busy was acting Mr Trump that he skipped a beat on his image and the social medias took an advantage.



Back in Europe, the tension between Madrid and Catalonia escalated over the weekend, having the central government announcement that will remove the Catalan leadership and threatened that will set strong jail terms immediately in case of a formal declaration of independence.
Meanwhile in Italy this weekend two of Italy’s wealthier regions voted for greater autonomy.
And along with the lack of major marco data today, the single currency remains soft and without any sharp declines.


Yes, interesting times we live! Take care of your dogs!

Friday, 20 October 2017

The ActivTrades Financial Trading Summit 2017


After the great success of the Financial Trading Summit in London last year, this year ActivTrades is hosting The ActivTrades Financial Trading Summit 2017 on 28th October 2017 in Dubai. It will take place from 10:30 to 18:00 at Shangri-La Dubai Hotel, Sheikh Zayed Road, Near Financial Metro Station, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

On this incredible event you will meet the best professionals,who will dicsuss the major market movers and most significat events of 2017 which have influenced the financial markets and your investments, as well as what could lie ahead. The professional traders invited for this event by AvtivTrades are Dr. Andrew Lumsden Groom, Ann Hunt, Sara Waqar and Nour Eldeen Muffeed KH.

The programme of the Financial Trading Summit is as follows:

- Applying Methods to Improve Trading Efficiency
- Psychological Trading
- Risk Management
- An in-depth look into Fundamental Analysis
- Panel Discussion

The programme will also include tea and coffee as well as lunch.

The participation is free of charge.


Thursday, 19 October 2017

The Amazing Rally

270 pips up today. Yes, it is an amazing rally for the AUD/NZD pair.

Of course strong and interesting fundamentals are staying behind the scene. And turned that it’s not a scene, it’s a macro news race.  
The day started with better-than-expected figures on employment data in Australia and next on the agenda came China’s GDP, showing slowdown in the third quarter. Having in mind that China is the Australia’s largest trading partner, both news had well supported the Australian dollar. As I already mentioned in my previous post, today it became clear that in New Zealand the First Party will be coalited with Labor and Greens to form a government and this announcement was not well accepted by the markets because the risk of taking measures for correcting the New Zealand dollar overvaluation by the new government is increasing. This is about to change the interest rate differential between New Zealand and Australia in next months and would appreciate even higher the exchange rate of AUD/NZD.From a technical viewpoint, the AUD/NZD is showing strong bullish signs, because first of all since April 2015 we are witnessing higher lows. Meanwhile on the four hour time frame the price is well above all its moving averages. The 20-day SMA turned to bullish and crossed to above the flat 200-day SMA with also having 100-day SMA uptrending. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought conditions and are starting to ease over there. Today a new 2017 high was marked at 1.1224 and currently the pair slightly retreated to 1.1207. According to indicators, that might show some exhaustion, in the short term we may expect a pullback. Until then I remain bullish on this pair unless we see formation of a clear reversal pattern at the upper levels.





Kiwi bulls favor the current government


The NZD/USD pair fell sharply today to more than a four-month low after it became clear that the First Party will be coalited with Labor and Greens to form a government.
This announcement was not well accepted by the markets because
the risk of taking measures for correcting the New Zealand dollar overvaluation by the new government is increasing.
In the late Asian session the NZD/USD pair dropped with over 1.5% and as the time of writing the price is 0.7037. As seen on the four hour time frame the price is below all its moving averages and also broke to below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of latest May to July bullish run, at 0.71. Indicators on the same chart are showing strong bearish momentum and are located within their extreme oversold areas. Having in mind above, it seems that further weakness is expected and the bears might test the psychological support at 0.7000.




Tuesday, 17 October 2017

USD/JPY At the upper side of its range on higher US Treasury yields


The US President Donald Trump is feeling enthusiastic about Taylor and the expectations for the next Fed’s rate hike rose after Janet Yellen’s comments during the weekend.  Following these events yesterday  the US Treasury yields skyrocketed to highest level since November 2008.
Today the USD/JPY is backed up the extended advance on the US Treasury yields and is trading at the upper side of its range.
Thechnically speaking seems that the pair has not enough stregth to climb significanlly higher. On the four hour time frame the price has topped at the 100-day SMA, acting as a dynamic resistance at 112.46, which is also the daily high. The pair couldn’t cross to above the 100-day SMA , but meanwhile remains above the 20-day SMA, that is staying flat around 112.00 and is providing first support level. Stochastic has turned sharply to south, but yet remains within extreme overbought territory. RSI also retreated from the north area and eased around it mid-line.
Nevertheless I’m positive on further advance for the pair , but first bulls should conquer the October 6th’s high at 113.43.  


GBP/USD No clrear directional bias

The Sterling is trading slightly changed today against the US dollar following the UK inflation numbers for September, meeting markets expectations. During the early European session the GBP/USD pair marked daily high at 1.3285, but retreated lower to currently trade at 1.3255.
On the four hour time frame the price has crossed to below its 20-day SMA, which turned flat yesterday. Meanwhile the pair now is being stalled at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest October bullish run at 1.3266. Indicators on the same chart are showing mixed signs. RSI is located around its mid-line and has lost directional strength. Stochastic has turned sharply to south and is visiting its extreme oversold territory.
First support is seen around 1.3220 (38.2% of same Fibonacci retracement) and in case of decisive break below it, bears would be likely to test next 1.3120 (the past week’s low). Looking to the upside, immediate resistance is the 1.3310 level and in case of conquering, bulls would try to march higher towards 1.3334, where Friday’s high provides the next resistance.
Next on focus is the BoE’s Governor Carney speech, who will give more clear information on the further interest rates outlook. So let's see how the pair will develop further for the day on the back of the reversed rally ahead of this event.



Friday, 13 October 2017

GBP/USD Extended the rally on Brexit talks hopes


The GBP/USD pair extended the Thursday’s rally and today marked fresh weekly high at 1.3323 but retreated to current market price 1.3291 on Brexit talk hopes. Next on focus are the US CPI an Retail Sales data later on today , but whatever the figures would be, the main driver for the pair are the Brexit talks and the macro picture of the UK economy.
Technically speaking, the four hour time frame is showing that the rally is likely to continue in the short term. The price is above its bullish 20-day SMA and is trying to surpass the 100-day SMA. RSI and stochastic are loosing upward potential, but yet remain located withing extreme overbought area. First resistance comes at 1.3300 and a clear break of this level would open doors for testing the next one at 1.3350 (50% Fibonacci retracement of latest bearish run). This scenario will be guaranteed by potential bag figures on the upcoming US macro data. Looking to the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3235 (former resistance) and in case of being conquered, next challenge for the bears will be the 1.3200 area.

 



Thursday, 12 October 2017

GOLD At two-week high


Yesterday’s FOMC minutes supported the gold prices on the back up of the notable USD weakness. The rate hike was postponed for December and the dovish tone of the central bankers reflected on sliding US treasury bonds yields, which supported the precious metal.  
XAU/USD is seen close to the very significant 1300.00 handle today and had marked daily high at 1297.50. On the four hour time frame the prices is moving well above its bullish 20-day SMA, while indicators are giving mixed signs. Stochastic is retreating from its extreme overbought territory, but yet remains above 80. RSI is located above its mid-line and is has lost directional strength.  Ahead of US PPI data and the weekly jobless claims gold prices are vulnerable to retreat lower in case of having better than expected numbers.  
First support is seen at 1290.00 and in case of breaking, door are opened for testing 1280.00. Looking to the upside, first resistance come at 32.8% Fibo of latest July to September bullish run around 1300.00 mark. If bulls succeed to conquer it, next target will be the 1310 – 1320 area.


AUD/USD Higher on broad USD weakness


The Aussie continues to gain traction for third consecutive session and today is seen above the significant 0.78 barrier with current market price 0.7817. The US dollar was set on great selling pressure after the FOMC minutes yesterday and this morning the AUD/USD was additionally boosted by the better-than-expected number on consumer inflation expectations.
Technically speaking the short term outlook loos neutral to bullish. On the four hour time frame the price is developing above its bullish 20-day SMA. Stochastic has slightly retreated but yet remains within extreme oversold area, while RSI is staying flat around 60 and looks to had lost directional strength.
The pair marked daily high at 0.7835 which turns to first resistance now, beyond which the pair could advance towards 0.7880 before being hurt by another set of selling pressure. US PPI numbers and weekly jobless claims data are due later on today and
worse than expected figures, would support the bulls to push higher.