Tuesday, 31 January 2017

EUR/USD At Fresh New Highs

The EUR/USD pair posted fresh 2017 high today reaching 1.0815. Stong macroeconomic data supported the rally from USA and Europe.
As seen on the four-hour frame the pair crossed to upside the 20-day SMA, which currently coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest decline ( November 2016 to January 2017) at 1.0705. Technical indicators are alongside with the bulls and are placed well above the mid lines. RSI is around 65 level and is showing lack of momentum. Stochastic is displaying extreme overbought market but is confirming strong bullish momentum, even with slight signs of recovery.
The pair is now facing strong resistance at 1.0816 (50% Fibonacci retracement of same November to January slide). In case of conquering this level, next target for bulls is seen beyond 1.09 handle.


USD/JPY Bearish Risk Ahead

The USD/JPY pair plummeted  today having marked around 1.15% down slide and posted intraday low at 112.07. A very short recovery was seen during the Asian session when the pair posted the daily high at 113.97. The latest decision of BOJ to keep its monetary policy unchanged modestly supported the Japanese Yen, but only in the early trading hours when the pair was last seen around 114.00 level. Meanwhile today the US Dollar weakness was fuelled by the negative numbers on Consumer Confidence results. 
In terms of technical levels, the risk remains to the downside. The pair is currently trading around 113.00 level, well below the 100-day SMA. As seen on the four-hour chart the technical indicators present bearish scenario. RSI is placed around 38 level, slightly recovering from oversold area. Stochastic is showing extreme oversold conditions and is displaying lack of momentum.
Overall the pair is trending to downwards and is vulnerable to test 110.00 area.


Friday, 27 January 2017

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Thursday, 26 January 2017

EUR/USD Turns To South

The US Dollar finally is showing some vital signs since today and is trading firmer against the majors. The deterioration caused by the Trump factor is currently fading away as now the huge infrastructure investment plans have shaped into an announcement. The greenback took the chance and rallied along with the main indices and yields. 
At this course of shifting landscape the EUR/USD pair turned to south. Having bottomed at 1.0660, later the pair slightly recovered and currently is trading at 1.0685. 
In the 4-hour chart technical indicators are located at bearish area and are loosing strength. The price has crossed the 20-day SMA, which is also holding slight downward direction.
Resistance level now are found at 1.0710 (yesterday’s low), 1.0755 (January 23rd high) and  1.0770. To the downside, support levels might be seen at 1.0660 (the daily low), 1.0610 and 1.565.

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

EUR/GBP Risk remains towards the downside

EUR/GBP continues to slide downwards for third consecutive session this week. The Sterling is gaining strength against the major rivals due to the twist of Brexit drama that confirmed the prolonging of negotiations for triggering Article 50. Tomorrow will be released another set of macro data in the UK on GDP and in case figures show better than expected numbers, the pair would be poised to extend the downtrend.
Technically speaking the pair is well situated within bearish conditions. The price is now far below the 2017 high at 0.8706 and has crossed to downwards the very bearish 20-day SMA. In the hourly chart technical indicators are located within negative territory with no signs for recovering. Both RSI and Stochastic are displaying lack of momentum.
In case of further bearish breakout, first support is seen at 0.8497 (today’s low) and next at 0.0850 (January 3rd low). A possible rebound would happen only if the price remain located at the current area around 0.0810. This may suggest slight upward move towards the resistance at 0.8620. 
Anyway EUR/GBP will be set to challenge upon the upcoming fundamentals tomorrow, which are going to set more clear direction for the pair.

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

GBP/USD Bulls overwhelmed by the twist in Brexit drama

GBP/USD moved higher today, having posted daily high at 1.2545 which the low was marked at 1.2417. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2500 and is about to close at highest level for the 2017. 
The uplifted sentiment was triggered by the latest twist in Brexit drama. The UK’s Supreme Court ruled that the PM Theresa May will have to receive approval from the Parliament before starting the procedures of Article 50. Yet the situation is quite uncertain and this decision fuelled another set of significant economic and political surprises. What is of significant importance is that anyway this rule will cause delay in the already complicated process of leaving the EU.
In terms of technical levels, the GBP/USD is poised to extend the rally. The price is moving above the 20-day SMA, which is shaped in strong bullish turn. In the H4 chart the technical indicators are recovering from the extremely overbought levels. Bulls might be challenged to conquer new highs in case of fighting 1.2545 (today’s high) and then next target will become the resistance at 1.2670. Support levels are now located at 1.2415 and 1.2250 area (the current week’s lows).

Monday, 23 January 2017

USD/JPY Shifted To Bearish Mode

With the start of the Donald Trump era the Japanese Yen is gaining strength, due to the weaker US Dollar, which can also be seen with the EUR/USD today aiming to fresh 2017 highs.
Last week the USD/JPY pair reached the lowest level for this year at 112.56, but succeeded to escape. Despite the quick shift of the direction, the pair was capped upside by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest December to January decline at 115.64. 
Today the pair marked an intraday high at 114.40 but couldn’t last long on this level. The mood was shifted to lows even below last week;s closing price and the current market price is 113.00. 
As seen on the H4 chart USD/JPY is now well situated within a bearish channel and holding below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Technical indicators remain in negative territory and are supporting the bearish mode.  
A possible consolidation around 112.50-113.000 would drag the pair away of last week’s low. Below this area, the decline might continue towards the bottom of the channel around 112.00 – 111.50. If crossing above today’s high US Dollar bulls might return, but only in case of jumping above the upper border of same channel. '

Friday, 20 January 2017

Gold Above $1200 Ahead Of Trump

Gold is bouncing from highs and lows today but nevertheless is being stuck between narrow range.
During the last five weeks the precious metal is showing strong uptrend, but fails to cross beyond the nearly two month-high at $1.1219. 
Gold is limited by a strong resistance at $1220 – 1222 area, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of last year’s upward movement.  
Currently Gold is flirting with $1200 mark, but risky circumstances are on the way. The Donald Trump inauguration is going to bring some turbulence and increased volatility on markets and to set the greenback under pressure.
Gold is facing resistances at $1215 and $1220 (50% Fibonacci retracement). If bulls find enough strength to overcome these levels, next target is seen at $1230 (January’s his). Looking to downwards immediate support is located at $1195 (the weekly low), followed by $1186 (61.80% Fibonacci retracement). 

GBP/USD Ahead Of Trump’s Inauguration

The GBP/USD pair is repeating yestreday’s performance, having climbed to day at 1.2419, but retreating later back below 1.23. The current market price is 1.2295 and the pair maintains bearish bias.
The UK monthly retail sales numbers couldn’t hold attention as British Pound was set on strong selling pressure. Meanwhile the US Dollar is seen more attractive due to the uprising US treasury bond yields. Anyway this Friday is quite interesting and is bringing fresh set of uncertainty and increased volatility. The most important event - the Trump’s inauguration is yet to come later on today and is going to cause some turbulence on markets and to set more clear direction for the greenback.
From a technical perspective the GBP/USD pair is keeping a bearish tone, as the price is placed well below the moving averages and technical indicators are showing strong downward movement. Immediate support is locates at 1.2250 and in case of breaking it, further slide to 1.2200 is very likely. Looking to the upside resistance is now see at 1.2340 and higher at 1.2400.

Thursday, 19 January 2017

USD/JPY Higher

Since yesterday the USD/JPY pair is moving higher, supported by the Janet Yellen’s hawkish speech.Mrs Yellen expressed anxiety on waiting too long before lifting up the interest rates considering the accelerating inflation. 
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair rallied and marked an intraday high at 114.75 and thus finally moved to positive this week. Today the pair continued the rally and jumped to 115.60. 
Technical indicators in the H4 chart uphold the bullish perspective. RSI is placed at 58 level and is recovering from overbought conditions. Stochastic is also showing extreme overbought market and meanwhile is loosing strength. Currently the 100-day SMA (115.75) is ceiling the upward movement seeing the short term development. 
Resistances are located at 115.50 and higher at 116.00.Looking to downwards first support is seen at 114.30 and next at 113.80.

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

The seductive devouring fundamentals that thrilled the EUR/USD pair

In the early European session the EUR/USD pair reached a fresh high at 1.0720,later on returned to 1.0675/70 area and currently is placed around 1.07 handle. The US dollar was set under huge pressure and the pair was boosted by the sell-offs of the greenback.
The German ZEW survey delivered mixed sentiment and passed quite unnoticed. The US manufacturing index is out of the expectations and brought another downside pressure on the US dollar. But nevertheless, the star of the day was the UK PM’s speech, who shined with another set of devoted measures towards the Parliament vote.
Technically speaking, the EUR/USD pair is seen uplifted today. Nevertheless a push beyond 1.0706 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest November to January slide) seems to be an extremely hard task, although the pair keeps the intraday bias above 1.0650,which is a an immediate support.
As seen on the H4 chart, the pair is  moving above the moving averages. Technical indicators are located within strong overbought market. RSI nears 70 level, but is showing lack of strength. Stochastic is placed at extreme levels and is indicating lack of momentum. 
While beingwithin  positive territory both indicators do not confirm any further slides to above. 
Important levels to consider for now are 1.0650 (intermediate support) and 1.0610. Looking upwards we must pay attention to resistances located at 1.0710 and 1.0750.

Monday, 16 January 2017

What is going to stir the markets this week

The week is starting with lack of significant events, but the rest of it offers  quite interesting data releases.

On Tuesday, January 17th, is starting the World Economic Forum in Davos, which will continue until the end of the week. Also same day are due Retail Price Index, Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index within UK. 

The German Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) will publish its index of investor confidence.
On Wednesday, January 18th, we can expect the final data on inflation in Germany along with the EU zone as well.
British authorities will publish data on unemployment and wage growth.
USA will release data on consumer price changes and the report on the industrial production.
Thursday, January 19th, will bring data on Producer and Import Prices Prices in Switzerland.
With great significance is the meeting of ECB and the press conference if the President Mario Draghi.  
ECB is going to take decision on interest and deposit rates.
USA will serve the regular weekly data on continuing jobless claims, initial jobless claims and building permits change.
Also the US Energy Information Administration will publish its regular weekly report on oil reserves.
On Friday, January 20, we may expect data on the growth of Chinese economy for the last quarter, UK’s  report on retail sales and Canadian inflation data.

Sunday, 15 January 2017

Gold: Lush for push

During the past three weeks Gold posted remarkable up-move and gained around 1.9% per week. On Thursday the yellow metal hit a high at $1206.75, which is a level that has not been visited since late November 2016 and more than six week high. The rally was supported by the weaker US Dollar and the large decline in DXY.
Of course fundamentals reached out and touched the price direction. Latest Trumpfication led to overbought conditions on bullion’s market. Later on we witnessed correction and the week was closed at $1197.
Looking to the week ahead there is significant macro data that will be released on Wednesday in the USA. CPI, CPI ex food and energy, Industrial production and Housing market index will stir the markets with medium to high impact. So things are going to be a bit risky for gold. 
On the daily chart technical indicators are showing strong upward move. RSI heads to north with current location at 63%. Stochastic is placed at extremely overbought territory but displaying lack of momentum.
In the short term Gold is seen bullish. First resistance is seen at $1208 and next is located at $1220 area. Support is now placed at $1700.
Generally an exhaustion pullback might be expected at $1185 area. Bearish validation is possible while passing below $1165 (50% Fibonacci retracement of latest up-move). 

Friday, 13 January 2017

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Thursday, 12 January 2017

Gold At Six Week High

Following the US President elect press conference the gold prices are showing further up-move and crossed the psychological handle at $1200. Gold is currently trading at $1205, the highest level since November 23rd and a six week high. 
Donald Trump didn’t offer much on his speech and more important is that he didn’t share any details on his on-coming economic plans to increase growth. Amid the planted disappointment among the markets, the US dollar suffered and was exposed to broad sell-off. The weakened US dollar boosted the interest for the gold investments.
If closing above $1193 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest 1304-1122 decline), gold prices are poised to extend the upward march towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1215. On the downside weakness is seen around the support line at $1165 (23.6% of same Fibonacci retracement) and a daily close below it, bears will target $1150 area.

GBP/USD Higher

The US President Elect Donald Trump press conference held yesterday coudn’t confirm the expectations for stronger economic growth and planted hesitation in investors sentiment. The US dollar suffered and was set under great selling pressure.
The USD/GBP pair was seen lower before the conference and marked close to a three months low. The pair quickly recovered and in the early trading hours today posted a fresh weekly high at 1.2317. 
Technical readings are indicating strong near-term bullish note. The pair has crossed to above the 20-day SMA. RSI heads to north with has surpassed the mid lines. Stochastic is showing extreme overbought market and displaying strong bullish momentum.
Bearish picture could be seen again if the pair breaks the immediate support located at 1.2200, which would drag the pair towards 1.2150 area. 
Resistances are now placed at 1.2360 and higher at 1.2400.

Tuesday, 10 January 2017

GBP/USD Resumed The Bearish Note

With the beginning of the new week the GBP/USD pair resumed its bearish sentiment. Yesterday the pair broke through the key support at 1.2200 and pinned daily low at 1.2123.
During today’s early trading the pair was flirting with 1.2100 levels, which has not been visited since late October 2016. 
On the H4 chart technical indicator is showing oversold conditions. RSI at around 37%  and is displaying lack of strength. Stochastic still can not cross the 20 level, but gaining slight upward momentum.
Considering the upcoming decision of the UK’s Supreme Court to state whether the Parliament or Theresa May can trigger Article 50 and continue with the negotiations, the future for the Sterling remains cloudy. 
The key support at 1.2200 now has turned intraday resistance. Next resistances are seen at 1.2305 (the 100-day moving average) and 1.2400. Looking downwards support is located at 1.2105 (today’s low) and 1.2070 (late October’s low).

Saturday, 7 January 2017

EUR/USD Remains Corrective In Long Term

With the start of the new year the EUR/USD pair collided with the unexpected. The pair marked a 14-year low at 1.0340, while at the end of the previous year rallied to 1.0650.
The weekly chart is showing that the pair is placed well below the moving averages. RSI is situated at around 36 level and is displaying slight signs of upward movement. Stochastic is bouncing from the extreme oversold area, but still has not crossed the 20 zone. The technical readings are suggesting a corrective phase within the range from the last two years.
If case of conquering the 30th December’s high at 1.0650, the pair might fight 1.0704 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November 9th to January 3rd  run down) and set correction movement. 1.0500 are is acting as strong support and if falling below it, next important level is 1.0365. Anyway having in mind the freshly posted low, another are supposed to be around the physiological level at 1.0300.  

Friday, 6 January 2017

USD/JPY Tilted Up

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed weaker that expected numbers today, but nevertheless the decline in USD/JPY pair was seized, having in mind the weekly performance. Yesterday the pair marked a fresh 3-week low at 115.21 influenced mostly by the FOMC minutes released previous day. 
Currently the pair is showing signs of recovery and is trading at 116.96 and seems that is gaining momentum.
USD/JPY has crossed to above the 20-day EMA, which is now acting as support. RSI is placed around mid-lines, but displaying strong upward trend. Stochastic has recovered from the extreme overbought area and is firming the bullish trend.
The pair is very close and is quite likely to overcome the resistance at 117.00. Nest resistance is located at 118.60. Looking downwards support is seen at 115.21 (yesterday’s low) and lower at 114.73.

Thursday, 5 January 2017

Dawn Light Shines Bright

The Trump factor mirrored in Gold weakness and during the last six weeks we witnessed strong bearishness. Prices were driven lower with around $200. Market conditions were within extreme oversold area.
Now the setup has changed into bullish mode in the short-term. Since late December 2016 Gold is moving up and formed bullish channel as shown on the hourly chart and prices are seen higher with around $50. Today a fresh new daily high was marked at $1185. Well, the surge of the price is due to the continuation of the of the latest bullish trend, but is also supported by the US dollar’s current weakness. And this is an important point that should be considered. The greenback is now exposed to large sell-off and Gold is not moving up without motivation.
Technical indicators are recovering from overbought territory, but still are located at north area. Both RSI and Stochastic are slightly turning to south on the hourly chart, but if we look at the H4 they are still confirming the bullish trend.
Support now is seen at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1173 (latest decline from Presidential elections high at $1336 to December 15th low at $1122). Strong resistance is located at $1188 (December 2nd high). Should the price cross to above this level, then bullishness in longer term could be possible.

Wednesday, 4 January 2017

Ignoring The Angst Of Brexit

Yesterday the GBP/USD pair declined and bottomed at 1.2198, but closed higher at 1.2237. As seen on the hourly chart, the price crossed to downwards the support trend line, which suggested a bearish scenario. 

But today we witnessed an interesting recovery, mostly due to the better than expected macro data released in UK. Another push up was set by FOMC minutes later on today and the pair settled above 1.2330. Currently the pair is placed above the support trend line. 
Given the fact that the Brexit uncertainty still persists, rallies are not excluded because selling opportunities are yet to come along with 1.2500 area pending bearish orders. 
The H4 chart is displaying that the pair is situated very close to the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement of the latest daily decline and well above the 20-day SMA, which is acting as a support now (1.2275). Some bullish signs are indicated by the technical indicators as well. RSI is heading to north with current location at 60 level. Stochastic is nearing overbought conditions and is showing strong bullish momentum. 
As long as bulls are running in the short term, next target is assigned to be 1.2480, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest daily decline. 

It is clearly that the Sterling benefited from the good macro UK data which is somehow damaging the expectation of the British economy development ahead of Brexit. And we may conclude that the latest movements of the British Pound are remarkable having in mind the behaviour against the financial markets. 

Tuesday, 3 January 2017

EUR/USD Marking Lower Lows

January has proven to be a bearish month for EUR/USD. During the past 20 years the pair has been falling with 70% in the first month of the year and the average decline within this period is around 195 pips. Considering the monthly changes in the pair the last three years are showing consecutive negative performance and the worst decline was seen in January 2015.
With the start of 2017 the EUR/USD pair does not perform differently. During today’s session a fresh new low was hit at 1.0340, which is a level that has not been visited since January 3th 2003.
Technical readings are confirming the bearish trend. As seen on the H4 chart the pair crossed to downside the 20-day moving average and remains well below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs.
Indicators have recovered from oversold areas, but still are located below mid-lines. RSI is currently being around 38% and is showing lack of strength. Stochastic has retreated from the extremely oversold area, but still is displaying week bearish momentum.
Another point that cannot be dismissed is that during the last three sessions the pair is marking lower lows and lower highs, which is additionally encouraging the bears.  
Support is located at 1.0340 (today’s low) and 1.0300 (physiological level). Resistance is seen at 1.0450 (20-day EMA) and 1.0495 (100-day EMA).