Monday, 31 October 2016

USD/CHF trying to recover

The market’s mood was elevated few minutes before the end of the last week because FBI decided to re-open the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email case. The time nears to the elections and this is of huge importance to forex markets. 
The USD/CHF pair suffered sharp losses on Friday, having in mind that during the whole past week had downward momentum. The pair bottomed at 0.9857 and formed a falling star pattern, as seen on the daily chart. 
Currently the pair is trading around 0.9892 and bulls are seen attempting to conquer 0.9900 level. Anyway some of Friday’s losses weer partly reversed.
RSI is currently placed withing the mid area, around 53%. Stochastic is showing oversold market and is displaying bearish momentum.
The key resistance is placed now at 1.0000 and in case the pair could push above 0.9900 handle, buying interest might follow and lift the bulls’ desire towards this round number.      
Looking to the downside, the outlook is for testing the 200-day EMA, currently located at 0.9780. First support is seen at 0.9915, which if broken could slide the pair to neutral area with testing 0.9950 or higher.

Saturday, 29 October 2016

Shanghai Composite posted weekly growth of 2.8%

Since the beginning of October the main Shanghai stock index – Shanghai Composite has increased with 2.8%. The lowest level ( - 0.74%) was posted on 17 October at 3041 while the highest value was marked on 25 October at 3132.
During the past week SSEC continued to move upwards and advanced with 0.4%. The first two days of the week the index was rising, while the next days brought slow decline.
The highest daily increase for the week SSEC marked on Monday (1.21%), while the biggest daily drop had on Wednesday (-0.5%). It is important to note that during the past week the People's Bank of China uploaded the financial markets with tens of milliard yuan via weekly repo transactions with commercial banks, which influenced in the direction of lowering the exchange rate of the yuan.

USD/JPY plummeted right after FBI reopenes Clinton’s mail case

Few hours before the end of the week markets tumbled. Only 10 days left to US elections and FBI reopened Clinton’s mail case. The news flashed into the market space and immediately affected the main currencies.
Since the beginning of October USD/JPY was moving higher and reached a 3 week high at 105.52. Last two days the pair is seen in consolidation phase around 105.00 level.
After the FBI story was posted, the pair plummeted and fell from 105.35 to 104.45 for just several minutes. Meanwhile the main indices at Wall Street and the equities also were significantly down. 
This story rocked the market mood, but 10 days is a lot of time. Outside the elections, next week promises to be interesting. High volatility is expected on Wednesday, when Fed and BoJ will declare their solutions on monetary policy.

Thursday, 27 October 2016

EUR/USD lower

The freshly released macro data from the USA washed out the great expectations for the EUR/USD pair. The US durable goods orders are down with 1%, the initial jobless claims has fallen by 3000 and the pending home sales increased with only 1,5%.
Following those disappointing numbers, the pair stepped downwards, passed below 1.09 level and marked intraday low at 1.0882.
If we take a look on movement this week, we’ll see that the pair is stuck between 1.0950 and 1.0850 area. Meanwhile the pair is currently placed below the 10, 50 and 200-day moving averaged, which are acting as dynamic resistances. 
The stochastic is showing oversold market and is currently at 23% level.
From a short-term viewpoint supports are placed at 1.0874 (October 26 low), 1.0851 (Oct 25 low). Looking to the upside resistances are seen at 1.0946 (October 26 high) and the psychological level at 1.1000. 

Wednesday, 26 October 2016

GBP/USD back to 1.22 handle

During Tuesday’'s trading the British pound lost strength against the US dollar, could not meet the positive expectations and plummeted. The pair tested the support, located at 1.2079 and bears didn't’t step lower.
Even being still under pressure today the cable found enough power to recover and returned back to 1.22 mark.
However the bulls attempt to push higher remains fragile amid the shaky market conditions.
RSI is staying within neutral area around 50% and is showing lack of strength. Stochastic is indicating overbought market and is displaying bullish momentum.The pair  finds immediate resistance located at 1.2332 (October 18 and 20 highs) and 1.2471 (October 7 high). Support is placed now at 1.2150 (key level) and 1.2079 (October 11 and 25 lows).  

Monday, 24 October 2016

EUR/USD don't look good

Last week EUR/USD took a walk on mysterious roads, mainly marked by bearish signs. The pair broke below the key support at 1.0910 and bottomed at 1.0858. It was hardly pressured by the monetary policy divergence driven by ECB, while Fed most likely is paving the way for a December rate hike.
The short-term expectations remain bearish. The week started with trading even lower as the common currency nears a seven month low level of 1.0822.
It seems that the will continue falling and is going to test the support area 1.0825 - 00. A clear break and daily close below that area could lead the pair to neutral zone and possibly testing 1.0715 level. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0910 and in case of clear break and daily close above it , most likely the pair will test the 1.1000 zone.
RSI is showing oversold conditions, the stochastic is placed within extreme values and both confirming bearish conditions.

Friday, 21 October 2016

ActivTrades Webinar: Trading Continuations with a Simple Pattern

Yet another exciting webinar was held yesterday on Trading continuations with a simple pattern, organized by the competitive online broker ActivTrades.

The webinar was led by the professional trader Paul Wallace who spoke on how to trade the continuation of a trend with one simple strategy and profit in the markets.
If you are interested in recognizing trend continuation and are willing to learn how to trade it, you may watch it here!

The forthcoming events promise to be even more exciting!

On 27 October Malte Kaub will talk about "Volatility Trading – Get ready for a bumpy ride".

On 3 November Paul Wallace will discuss the US election on a free webinar “US Elections: Which way will it go?”

And the most attractive, impressive and significant event is the ActivTrades Financial Trading Summit 2016, that will be held on 19 November. The Summit will present various financial experts who will equip you with essential strategies and the trading psychology that you need to start or enhance your trading abilities. You will also have the opportunity to have your technical questions answered and to network with other traders. 

To learn more, follow this link!

Thursday, 20 October 2016

EUR/USD ahead of ECB meeting

In the early trading hours today the US dollar was performing slightly stronger against the major rivals, supported by Fed's Beige Book release that indicated clear and definite development for the US economy. In anticipation of the key event today, ECB meeting and Mario Draghi's speech, the EUR/USD is consolidating within a tight range.
It is expected that ECB will keep unchanged its key benchmark interest rates and bond purchase program. Anyway today’s meeting and the following presser will bring increased volatility on markets.
The pair is currently hovering around 1.0950 level, which is an immediate support. If bears strengthen their force, the pair will be sent lower towards next support at 1.0920. Looking to upwards, if the pair struggles to push higher above the current support mark, will face the first resistance located at 1.1065.

Tuesday, 18 October 2016

GBP/USD uptrending

During yesterday’s session the pound marked modest increase against the US dollar. The session closed just 29 pips higher and pinned an intraday high at 1.2135. Given the fact that yesterday’s performance was corrective recovery, bulls seen back today was expected even slightly pressured.
As it is clearly seen on the H4 chart, the pair is modestly uptrending and pushing above the 20-day simple moving average. The pair is advancing from 1.2200 to 1.2300. RSI is located in the positive area, but although is showing lack of strong upward momentum.
Support is located at 1.2120 and 1.1950. Looking upwards first resistance is lying on 1.2300 and currently is being tested. Next resistance is seen at 1.2460 and 1.2790.

Monday, 17 October 2016

Gold in oversold area

Since the beginning of October gold broke through 1300 area, but shortly afterwards retreated below the 200-day simple moving average, which is currently located at 1265. As it is clearly seen on the daily chart this line has not been crossed since February. That’s why we should take on consideration the importance of the yearly rally of the yellow metal.  
RSI is showing oversold market and almost is touching the 30 level now. The stochastic is indicating an oversold market as well, but however is displaying lack of momentum.
Support now is located at 1084, 1040 and 1005. Resistance is seen at 1190, 1252 and 1307.
In short, if gold price is not able to push above 1265 (200-day SMA), most likely will follow a test of 1200 area. Before that a consolidation phase is expected, confirmed by the indicators.   

USD/JPY bearish in the short-term

Last week the USD/JPY  pair continued its bullish momentum , but still is facing difficulties to hold above the key resistance located at 104.20. But in the short-term the outlook remains neutral. The next resistance is around 104.65 level and in case of breakthrough, bulls will try to conquer 105.00/50. The intraday support seems to be 103.50 and the trend line as it is clearly seen on the H1 chart. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure for testing the next support at 102.75. 
RSI is slightly below 40 level and is confirming the current downward trend. The stochastic is indicating an oversold market and is still displaying bearish momentum. 
Overall within the nearest term bears are ruling the situation. Only a clear break below 103.50 could put an eventual end to the current bullish correction phase.

Sunday, 16 October 2016

Pinterest vs Facebook and Twitter

150 million users per months at least.  A quite impressive number for Pinterest. That means and increase of 50 million from September 2015, when visitors count was 100 million. So in fact now Pinterest might compete now with Facebook, Twitter and some other Internet giants.
Pinterest's ability to attract new customers in a digital world filled with applications that quickly catch people's attention, then quickly fall behind, additionally helps the website to gain popularity among advertisers.Just to remind that this company was established six years ago and last was estimated by investors of 11 billion dollars with the strong expectations to triple last year's revenue to 300 million dollars in 2016.While Pinterest is heading to its IPO, Facebook now has 1.7 billion users and has managed to attract more than 167 million new users since September last year. But against Twitter the company is growing much faster. Currently Pinterest is larger than Twitter in the US having monthly 70 million active users against 66 million users of the microblogging platform on 30 June. The market capitalization on Twitter worth 13 billion dollars, which recently dropped significantly and now is very close toPinterest’s market value.

EUR/USD below the psychological level 1.1000

EUR/USD escaped from the range within which the pair was capped the past days. The pair plummeted and reached lowest level for the last three months, as fell to 1.0971 and closed the week below the psychological level 1.1000.
From a technical viewpoint, the bearish scenario is more likely and we might witness further decline in the coming days.  As it is seen on the daily chart, the pair is now staying below the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages and has lack of strength to overcome them.
RSI is showing oversold market and is indicating bearish trend. Momentum is also in a line with the slope to downside and marking lowest level since early July. Support is now located at 1.0950, followed by 1.0910. Looking to the upside, resistance is now seen at 1.1090, 1.1160 and the key level at 1200.  

Friday, 14 October 2016

AUD/USD again above 0.7600

AUD/USD conquered again the 0.7600 handle during today’s early trading hours. The pair  rallied towards 0.7647 and it seems that this level will remain the intraday high. Despite the positive data coming from the USA, the greenback is trading mixed today, but definitely lower against the commodity currencies. The Asian session boosted the mood as Chinese macro data on inflation was released and marked quite good numbers.
From technical viewpoint the AUD/USD is moving upwards, though correction around 0.7600 level is the most likely scenario. The 20-day moving average is also heading to the upside. RSI is showing overbought market and the stochastic is displaying bullish momentum.
Resistance is now located at 0.7700 and support is seen at 0.7560 (61.80% Fibonacci retracement) and 0.7615 (23.60% Fibonacci retracement).

Tuesday, 11 October 2016

GBP/USD below 1.2200

GBP/USD continues to fall and broke below 1.2200 level. The pair continued the decline and in the afternoon pinned a new fresh low at 1.2126. 
The pound is quite sensitive lately, but currently is hardly pressured by the dark side of Brexit. Triggering of Article 50 gives a good reason of the currency to slide along the fears and to slide further across the board.
Support is now located at 1.2125/35 – today’s intraday low. Next one is the 1.2100 level, which is consider as a psychological. Looking to the upside, now the immediate resistance is seen at the previous support at 1.2200. Next levels to watch are 1.2325 and the daily high at 1.2365. Stochastic is pointing oversold market and RSI also confirms the bearish trend.

USD/JPY uplifted

USD/JPY closed last Friday quite bearish, bur during yesterday’s session recovered some of the losses. The pair climbed with 34 pips to 103.59 after trading within narrow range between 103.78 and 103.59. 
Currently the USD/JPY pair is showing some bullishness although the Japanese yen may suffer during the next weeks. The pair retested the resistance located at 104.00, but couldn’t move higher. Next resistance is located at 104.30 and we must consider this as a key level, because this is where the pair stopped climbing higher. That said level has been support, but the last time the pair reached it, it has become resistance. The importance of this level comes from the fact that this is the last peak, marked by the pair. If USD/JPY close above and this level turn to support, we will witness a higher low, higher top and turning of 104.30 from resistance to support again. And hypothetically trend reversal should follow.But at present, the price cannot push above 104.30, and more likely the pair will remain in sideways movement between 104.30 and 100.00.  Strong support is seen at 101.40 - 101.50.
MACD is showing bullish signs. RSI is in the overbought area and pointing positive divergence. 

Sunday, 9 October 2016


The past week was full of events that moved the markets. However the EUR/USD pair finished the week in the well know area. The greenback was seen slightly higher against the single currency, supported by the excellent PMIs numbers. The euro stepped downwards depressed by ECB’s talking.
From technical viewpoint there is no significant change of the levels to watch in the coming week. Immediate support is located at 1.1165 and resistance is seen at 1.1250 and 1.1285. Technical indicators are not showing what is going to follow next. Moving averages are very close to current price movement and RSI is around 50. The momentum is positioned around 100 level, also failing to point nothing significant. 

Friday, 7 October 2016

Finally: Q4 Trading Kick-off

Nine months crossing the sea within stormy waters. And flying high through dark clouds. In the stretch of the final 2016 that’s how I may discribe the uncertainty of finacial markets. Zika, Brexit, Olympics triggered regret and excitement and shaked the markets in significant and remarkable way. But the last quarter of 2016 promises to be interesting and unpredictable as well. The presidential election in USA and the rising expectation of Federal Reserve’s rate hike will stir the mood.Are you ready to take part in this perfectly incomplete play, because the year is not completed yet?! Q4 is offering quite interesting trading opporunities and if you are interested, you may learn more from the the last webinar held by online broker ActivTrades and led by professional trader with 22 years of experience Paul Wallace, who discussed his game plan for the last leg of 2016. 

Thursday, 6 October 2016

USD/JPY in consolidation

USD/JPY pair was trading elevated today with moving higher above 50-day, 100-day and  200-day moving averages. The pair has not been so much uplifted for months and probably the rising expectations for Fed’s rate hike are provoking for US dollar’s strength and at the same time pressuring for the safe haven yen. 
Anyway the USD/JPY pair marked today an intraday high at 104.14, but couldn’t hold it for long time and slight downward movement followed. Currently the pair is consolidating around 104 handle. It is very hard to predict the further behaviour of the pair, especially tomorrow, as the NFP release is going to be the main engine that will stir the markets.RSI is showing overbought market and stochastic is showing strong strong momentum is above the 80 line. Resistance is now located at 104.30 and further on at 105.00, which is key pattern. Looking downwards support is seen at 103.69  and 102.64.

Wednesday, 5 October 2016

The Brexit is not enough, skyfalls over the Pound

The Brexit is not enough. September skyfalled over the Pound and it continued drifting. Fundamentals were ignored. BoE left rates unchanged. PIM pointed neglection of initial reactions caused by the referendum. Politicians’ spectre is not colourful enough. For their eyes only economic indicators are not seen in the living daylights. 
Another shock was delivered this week by the Prime Minister Theresa May. A view to kill the access to the single market by limiting the people migration. Mrs No already scheduled Rocky Brexit. Do you think UK economy can stand this turbulence? Well the Pound coundn’t and fell to a new fresh 31-year low against the US dollar. Uncertainty is rising inevitably and this will not bring anything sustainable for the Pound.

Technically speaking for the GBP/USD pair the bias remains bearish. RSI is slightly above the oversold area, momentum is showing bearish signals DMI’s provide confirmation. Moving above the current level of 1.275 would be possible in a short-term perspective,but anyway we must consider the weakness of the Pound and expect further downward movement.  

Tuesday, 4 October 2016

Gold posted new fresh low

While the US dollar is boosted today by stronger economic data along with the rising expectations of Fed’s rate hike, gold prices plummeted and hit a new fresh low.
XAU/USD pair was sliding downwards for sixth consecutive session and pressured mainly by the US dollar strength extended its fall to reach an intraday low at $ 1265. The pair crossed the 100-day moving average as well as the key support level at $ 1300. It is important to mark that gold prices have not visited significant lows since end of May 2016, when tumbled to $ 1198.
As seen on the daily chart, gold has formed five waves descending line and is currently riding the third one at $ 1351. The Stochastic is showing oversold market and RSI neared negative area. Expecting corrective movement towards $1300/1305 area. Resistance is now located at $ 1300 and $ 1318. Support is seen at $ 1268 and $ 1250.

Sunday, 2 October 2016

EUR/USD tuneless

During the last week the EUR/USD pair was trading tuneless and almost muted by the tight range for fifth consecutive week, as markets need something more exciting to stir the mood.
The eye catch for the week was the first US Presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. I’m eager to watch the next one, the promise of a stable policy against the wild and risky businessman definitely will shake the financial markets.
The greenback finished the week solid, somehow boosted by risk sentiment rather than by strong local data and EUR/USD pair was hovering around 1.20 handle.
Technically speaking, the par is stuck between 1.1120 and 1.1280, and it is very hard now to escape out of this tight range. In the short-term the pair is seen in the neutral area with lack of strenght to move out of it.
There is no change of the support and resistance levels, so the upcoming week will offer nothing significant until Friday, when NFP data will be realeased. Support is currently located at 1.1160, 1.1120and 1.1000. Resistance is seen at 1.1245, 1.1285 and 1.1360.