EUR/GBP Uplifted on mixed UK jobs data

EUR/GBP dropped sharply yesterday but found support few pips above the key level 0.8800, also 50 %  Fibonacci retracemet of latest January to February bullish run. Mixed UK jobs data today triggered initial weakness of the Sterling and the pair bounced to reach daily high at 0.8855.  

The UK's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose (4.4% from 4.3%) during the three-months in 2017 , despite the jobless claims for January dropped. With PM May on the wires and BoE’s inflation ahead, the Sterling is set on huge pressure.
Currently the pair is trading at 0.8843 and as seen on the four hour time frame is going to cross to above its bearish 20-day SMA. Stochastic and RSI retreated from there oversold readings and both are showing strong bullish momentum.  

The recovery from the last hours can not confirm resumption of the short term bullish outlook  as yet EUR/GBP faces difficulties around 0.8855. In case the pair conquer this barrier, next challenge will be 0.8880 and finally the psychological 0.89 handle.  The downside is protected by the 50% Fibo at 0.8800 and bears are strictly guarded while staying above that level.

EUR/USD Lower

The US dollar resumed gains today supported by the rising US treasury yields. The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.23189 but found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest January to February bullish run. 

The pair bounced few pips higher and currently is trading at 1.2335. The recovery is quite unsustainable as the pair failed to fight back the 23.6% of same Fibo retracement from where hesitated last Friday.

On the four hour time frame the price crossed to below its 20-day bearish SMA and the flat 100-day SMA. RSI is located around 38 and has lost directional strength. Stochastic bounced from its extreme negative territory but yet remains below 20.

According to above readings the short term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish. 

First support is provided by the 200-day SMA at 1.23 and next at 1.2270. Looking to the upside resistance is seen at 1.2380 (the flat 100-day SMA) and higher at 1.2400.

Gold Bulls are eyeing $1366

Since last Friday Gold prices turned the price movement direction towards north. During the last five session bulls gained strength and confidence and today are shrinking the distance to the remarkable January’s high at $1366.

As seen on the hour time frame currently the price is developing well above its moving averages and a little below the 3-week high at $1361. The 20-day SMA is keeping strong bullish course, while the 100-day and 200-day are staying flat and are acting as dynamic supports and coincide with the 50% ($1338) and 38.2% ($1330) Fibo levels of latest January to February brearish run.
On the same chart RSI and stochastic are located within extreme overbought territories, but both are losing directional strength. This signals some exhaustion and potential bearish reversal, so XAU/USD might enter into sideways consolidation ahead of $1366.

 

EUR/USD Bulls are unstoppable

US January inflation release triggered furore on the financial markets. DJIA was around 500 points down ahead of Wall Street opening, the greenback soared and the EUR/USD pair conquered the 1.2400 level.

As seen on the four hour time frame the pair found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January bullish run considering that last week twice bottomed at the 50% Fibo of same rally and the current market price is above 23.6%.

Bulls are marching above the moving averages and all of them are keeping bullish slopes. RSI is showing strong upward momentum but eased very close to 70. Stochastic has retreated from its extreme overbought readings in the Asian session and now is back above 80. 

During the upcoming sessions the EUR/USD pair will find resistance at 1.2480 (last Monday’s high) and in case of breaking it next challenge will come with 1.2535 (January’s high). 

USD/JPY Lower

USD/JPY tumbled to fresh six month low, down for the day with 0.85 % and current market price 107.65.

Overnight the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index figures for January were released from Japan, which met the markets expectations, but failed to influence price movement. The following speech of Governor Kuroda started to boost the Japanese Yen on the back up of reduced demand of greenback. Kuroda confirmed that BOJ will maintain QE until inflation reaches 2.0% although the central banks lately act opposite on his works. What comes more interesting is that the PM Abe didn’t clarify if the Governor will keep his post.

Technically the short term outlook for the pair remains bearish.On the four hour time frame the price is developing well below its bearish moving averages. RSI and stochastic are located within extreme oversold territories and both are keeping strong downward slopes.

The USD/JPY conquered the support level at 107.70 and now the pair is poised to extend its decline towards immediate support, provided by last Spetember’s low at 107.31. If bears succeed to breach this level, then doors are opened for testing 106.80.

50 shades of Trump

Make America Misogynistic Again

The final shades of a popular movie look to be disappointing as could not really impress the audience, most likely because they did not have the exact script writer.

What is more disgusting than the so-called pop-culture phenomena and social sensations that infect us as a weapon of mass dulling is that the head of most powerful nations worldwide is an outspoken sexist. The way President Trump speaks about women is extremely offensive to whomever roams around him. But the harm extends beyond that. His way of watching and unfolding women, the way he root out  the femininity and dignity and the fact that he nevertheless won the elections and now is leading the United States, contributes to the stubborn perseverance of exactly the kind of sexist, patriarchal culture that is in imminent need of change. The journey through the Trump archives is too long and nasty and 50 shades are too few. 

I found an interesting selection of an artist, who put Trump quotes on sexist ads from the 1950s and it’s frighteningly realistic. Observing these visual matches turns my awareness ahead of Saint Valantine’s Day and the International Women’s Day. Apart of my feelings, enjoy this incredible art project!

https://babe.net/2017/05/02/artist-put-trump-quotes-sexist-ads-1950s-frighteningly-realistic-325

The week ahead

While some people are dancing hot samba in Rio De Janeiro, others are preparing for the long celebration of the Lunar New Year. For those who are lack of festive mood, the economic calendar for the week ahead will unfold mostly data on GDP and CPI.

Japan celebrates a national holiday today and the macro agenda from the rest of the world do not offer much except  the numbers on Consumer Price Index in Switzerland.

On Tuesday we can expect the announcement of the British Produce Price Index, Consumer Price Index y/y and m/m and Retail Price Index data. From the US the FOMC Member Mester speech is due.

 Wednesday will be very busy day, but the focus will be on Japan's GDP data for Q4. Further on  we may expect GDP data from Germany, Italy and  the Eurozone. In the afternoon  releases from USA are due on Retail Sales, basic CPI and CPI on Food&Energy.

Thursday will bring employment data from Australia and the RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe speech . The more important news that will  come from the US are the Philadelphia Fed figures and the jobless claims release.

A long weekend will start for South Korea, China and Hong Kong due to the Lunar New Year celebration.

Friday are due the British retail sales data for January the building permits for January in the USA.

The earnings season continues this week the with the financial reports of MetLife, PepsiCo, Western Union, Cisco systems, T-Mobile USA and TripAdvisor.