Doha soundtrack

The eagerly awaited release is scheduled for 17th of April and it is going to introduce mixed tunes. 

The ongoing supply glut will keep the major beat of the discussion.

Oil prices are located close to the key psychological level at $40 a barrel. Currently the scepticism prevails mainly due to the friction between Saudi Arabia and Iran in terms of a reduction in yield that could ruin the materialization of a potential decision to restrict production in a real downturn.

The hopes of an agreement supported the recent rally, but the chances for such scenario remain weak, having in mind that Saudi Arabia is striving for solo performance.

If  markets fail to meet the desire for production cut, a setback from current levels might be expected.

Within this soundtrack I’m awaiting to here the roar of the bears, twisted with the louder sound of the solid long-term demand for oil.

GBP/USD in weekly prespective

The macroeconomic calendar for the week ahead will flourish with colourful events.

The pound is still chased by the fear of further decline and is about to start running back below the psychological level of $1.40.

GBP/USD is jumping around volatile frustration as the uncertainty enveloped Brexit obsess the pound. But on the other side, the surprising dovishness by Fed has shattered the US dollar and this  trend most possibly will remain in the next few days.

$1.40 - $1.4050 area is yet a key support zone and until up, some upside movement is possible with target levels of $1.4150 and most likely $1.4240. A break below this support might bring back the bears and the pair might rush downwards to $1.3850.

EUR/USD in weekly perspective

The current consolidation  chapter might be closed in the forthcoming days. EUR/USD is welded in a narrow rage and the technical outlook is neutral. Usually breakouts from these ranges are steep and volatile.

From the macroeconomic viewpoint, the  market participant will pay more attention to US data, as the week ahead is full of macro news. We are going to witness several Fed speeches, jobless claim report, along with CPI numbers.

EU macro data will not offer much. On Tuesday will be released the German inflation figures for March (CPI and HICP indices), which will most likely confirm the expectations for increase in inflation. Wednesday will bring the French CPIs for March, followed by euro zone industrial production data for February. The euro zone's CPI for March are due on Thursday.  

The main support for the current bullish momentum is located around $1.1330, where pinned previous peaks. While staying above, the outlook remains bullish with marking next target at $1.1450, despite the consolidation from the few past days.If the support slumps, the euro eventually will plunge to $1.13 or lower, with another major bullish support at $1.12.

Trading and Day Job 1: Trade setup

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Strobing commodities

Precious metals fell because of the risk appetite of investors. Over six tons of gold were sold minutes before the Fed’s publication. Gold fell to $ 1226.32 an ounce.

The main metals permormed miscellaneous. Copper faced bright future ahead and managed to rise to almost $2.133 for a pound. Aluminum and zinc ended with a fall.

Oil prices returned to growth, gaining more than 3 percent to $ 38 a barrel. The black gold received support from the bad data on US oil stockpiles. For the week to April 1 oil stockpiles fell by 4.9 mln barrels. The expectations of analysts ware for an increase of 3.3 mln barrels.

AUD/USD

A kind of strongest performance was shown today by the Aussie, upholded by the commodity-based currencies that felt a good revival after oil stockpiles dropped last week.

WTI rallied 5.27%  to $37.77 during the US session. Meanwhile EIA reported a 4.9 million decrease in oil barrel inventories last week, rocking out the temple of the hope that the global supply glut is melting away.

Brent was trilled as well and as long as it felt the beat of the news, was trading 5.04% higher to $39.78. Currencies connected to commodities couldn’t run out from this support, including the Aussie.

AUD/USD rebounded on the improved sentiment and rose 0.89% to $0.7608 today and hit an intraday high of $0.7619, which is its strongest level since RBA tried to break down the walls of the self confidence of the currency earlier this week.

Red Monkey into the trendline

The Red Monkey was warmly welcomed and now is fascinating with ambitious, adventurous, sometimes irritable and sizzling characteristics of fire. 

And this fusion is somehow now affecting to where is deeply embedded. 

The energy of the Red Monkey blends so far with several quite significant signs.

On Thursday S&P stripped the credit rating outlooks for China and Hong Kong from stable to negative, facing the increasing economic and financial risks to the mainland government's creditworthiness. Now the forecast for China's economic growth probably will remain at or above 6%  annually over the next three months.

Today the stock markets in Asia started the second quarter with declines. Shanghai Composite erased 1.05%, Shenzhen Composite fell 1.479% and Hang Seng index recorded a decline of 1.17%.

Meanwhile China labelled a record quarterly trove of mergers and acquisitions. $682 bn in global deal activity, $101 bn, or 15%  of that figure involved Chinese buyers. Amazing dealmaking!!!

Some external and cyclical factors affect more to the current slowdown in China’s economy rather than environmental constraints. So even the markets are lost during the last few months and this can not be translated clearly into the trendline, I think that the the country will continue to be a major economic engine of the world, contributing to 30% of world growth until at least 2020.