Thursday 1 February 2018

EUR/GBP More likely to continue falling


Since the beginning of the week the EUR/GBP is trading lower baked up by the GBP rally and uncertain single currency. Today the EC President Jean-Claude Juncker has reinforced the tension, pointing out on an event in Spain that in the months ahead  the unity of the European Union is likely to be called into question and the upcoming Brexit talks will bring a huge mess.
EUR/GBP sharply fell in the morning but found support at 0.8720. The increasing buyers interest uplifted the pair to currently trade at 0.8758. As seen on the four hour time frame the price is developing below its bearish 20-day and 100-day SMAs and flat 200-day SMA. RSI is at 43 and has started to turn north. Stochastic is yet located within extreme overbought area but is showing good upward momentum. Nevertheless the upside is capped by the 0.8833 level – 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of latest bullish run and the current location of the flat 200-day SMA. Bulls has tried to conquer this level twice this year, but unsuccessfully, so in the short term I see them fail again.  
Key support is provided by the double low around 0.86875 and Fibonacci retracement level . A breach would open doors to 0.8646 (June 8 low). This scenario would be more reasonable for the pair, because except a weak single currently, the Sterling upside momentum picks up pace.
Another "Super Thursday" is coming next week with BoE’s release on its latest monetary policy and Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR), which may bring additional strength on GBP. 


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