Monday 6 July 2015

Oxi....and what follows?

The referendum that was held yesterday in Greece surprised with the strong prevail of citizens voted NO. 
Surprisingly, first because preliminary surveys pointed to a moderate parity in the results and, secondly, because after a week of bank holidays and social tensions, which created the impression that the Greek people are beginning to understand the risks associated with exit of Greece from the eurozone and the falling in financial bankruptcy, and hence to economic isolation.
Greek people decided to support the Government of Tsipras during the week in which their country formally fell into bankrupt after failing to pay a debt of 1.5 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The next huge obligation is to the European Central Bank (ECB) for the ammount of 3.5 billion Euros and the maturity date is July 20 – just after two weeks. It is logical to think that this debt will remain unpaid.
Interestingly, however, is how long will continue the support and the euphoria of the Greek people for Tsipras and confrontational policy against EU and creditors, because in addition to payments to creditors, the government should also provide money for pensions and salaries of state administration which is not small at all. The problem is that much of the process is now irreversible, and many of the bridges between Greece and its creditors were destroyed.
The ambiguity is total. One of the biggest problems is the lack of a process and a plan to guide the exit of Greece from the eurozone, which becomes more realistic scenario.

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